Clipmarks | Super-spike Clips

Barrel FeverDoes anyone know how much oil there is in the world?

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 14:56:07 GMT

clipped by: A53GG4

Barrel FeverDoes anyone know how much oil there is in the world?

By Yves Smith

What is the "right" price for a barrel of oil? Japan's oil minister said, based on fundamentals, the price of crude should be $60 a barrel, not the $130 to $140 we see today. During congressional testimony, five oil-industry CEOs each gave estimates of where oil "ought" to be, with results ranging from $35 to $65 a barrel to $90. Even the implacable Saudis are reportedly about to increase production by half a million barrels a day, a sign that they are concerned that the current price is too high. Yet BP's chief recently said current price levels are warranted, and the oil bulls at Goldman forecast a "super spike" to $150 to $200 a barrel.

How can presumed experts be so divided? Because the data on oil stink.

Tags: oil

ClipHistory: Oil price prediction (July 2005)

Fri, 13 Jun 2008 17:44:18 GMT

clipped by: kmcolo
clipper's remarks: One of the first clips from egoldstein with two predictions on the future price of oil from July of 2005. Oil was just around $60 a barrel. Ah the good old days. An interesting clip back then and today!

Clip Source: content4.clipmarks.com

Two prominent investment banks have come out with very different forecasts on where oil is heading. In March, Goldman Sachs said oil could top $100 a barrel, dubbing the phenomenon a "super spike." But last month, an economist from Morgan Stanley predicted oil prices could collapse.

Clip Source: clipmarks.com

egoldstein

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7-6-2005 9:53 PM

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Tags: cliphistory, oil

'Super spike' oil analyst gains a lot of Wall Street cred

Thu, 22 May 2008 14:18:53 GMT

clipped by: sunstreak509

Clip Source: www.iht.com

An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted that oil would breach $100 a barrel.

Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another record Wednesday, as the price of light sweet crude for July delivery rose above $132 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are 99 percent higher than a year ago, according to Bloomberg News.

Tags: oil, economy, gas

The Oracle of $200 Oil

Wed, 21 May 2008 16:47:39 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: Goldman Sachs made headlines with his prediction of oil as high as $200 a barrel. What does this mean? $6 a gallon at the pump.

Is this rapidly becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy?

The somewhat breathless coverage here reminds me of an old parable from the 90s. An analyst named Henry Blodget predicted in 1998 that Amazon.com stock would hit $400 (when it was currently trading at $250ish). In a frenzy, Amazon hit it within a month. Of course, it went on to collapse spectacularly in 2000. A decade later, Amazon's never returned to trading at that level...

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

Arjun N. Murti remembers the pain of the oil shocks of the 1970s. But he is bracing for something far worse now: He foresees a “super spike” — a price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel.

Mr. Murti, who has a bit of a green streak, is not bothered much by the prospect of even higher oil prices, figuring it might finally prompt America to become more energy efficient.

An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas at $4 a gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives.

Analyst Warns of $200/Barrel Oil*

Thu, 08 May 2008 01:50:29 GMT

clipped by: merrie
clipper's remarks: *One barrel of crude oil is 42 gallons (or $4.76 per gallon)
In the Cato-at-Liberty blog post "Is There an Oil Price Bubble?" Cato senior fellow Jerry Taylor writes: "The most recent Fed actions to combat the deteriorating state of the macroeconomy added even more fuel to the oil price fire. With market actors increasingly convinced that the Fed is willing to entertain inflation in the course of injecting liquidity into the market, investors are looking for investments to hedge against inflation. And what do you know? Returns on commodities have historically been better during inflationary periods than during non-inflationary periods. Ben Bernanke thus sent another strong infusion of cash into commodity futures -- again, largely into oil and gas futures.

Clip Source: www.cato.org

"Crude oil prices could surge to $200 a barrel in the next two years, according to the Goldman Sachs analyst who three years ago correctly predicted a price 'super-spike' above $100 a barrel," Financial Times reports. "The warning by Arjun Murti came as oil prices hit a fresh high above $122 a barrel, boosted by supply disruptions in Nigeria, lower output in Russia and continued robust demand in China ahead of the Olympics."

"The increased demand for oil futures drives spot prices because it diverts oil from immediate use into inventories. The stepped-up infusion of oil into public inventories (the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the emerging state inventory maintained by the Chinese government, for instance) has also contributed to the diversion of oil from immediate use and thus, has further increased prices."

Tags: goldman sachs, super-spike, arjun murti, strategic petroleum reserve, china's emergency inventory, oil diversion

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on oil prices

Thu, 07 Jul 2005 04:54:45 GMT

clipped by: egoldstein
clipper's remarks: Goldman and Morgan totally disagree about future price of oil. Lets hope Morgan is right because $100/barrel would suck.

Clip Source: money.cnn.com

Tags: oil prices

Oil price predictions

Thu, 07 Jul 2005 04:53:05 GMT

clipped by: egoldstein

Clip Source: money.cnn.com

Tags: oil prices