Clipmarks | Stagflation Clips

Bud Conrad economic projections

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 05:54:43 GMT

clipped by: robm47
clipper's remarks: Sept.'08 forecast by Bud Conrad (Chief Economist with Casey Research

Projections

1. The housing decline is not yet done, because we will need another year to unwind foreclosures in the pipeline. The housing bubble still has another 10% to 20% to go to fully deflate.

2. Consumers in the U.S. are not able to expand credit and are increasingly concerned about the outlook for the economy, so they will slow spending both at home and on imports, which means we are in a recession or about to confirm one.

3. The financial/banking system is weaker than understood. The global system and literally trillions of dollars in derivatives has left the world’s banks teetering on the edge. Don’t jump back into financials.

4. A slowing economy – recession – coupled with inflation, creates a condition referred to as stagflation, as the simulative bailouts compete with the debt implosion of overleveraged financial institutions and real estate, to leave us with stagnation and still high costs.

food, energy and precious metals are heading higher as the dollar is debased.

Tags: economics

UK Falling to Recession

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 08:58:56 GMT

clipped by: abailart

Clip Source: www.guardian.co.uk

The British economy will contract in 2009 in its first full year of recession since the early 1990s, one of the country's leading economic forecasting groups said today.

Capital Economics said a combination of a weaker than anticipated domestic economy, a recession in the eurozone and the threat of a contraction in bank lending would result in a quarter-point reduction in gross domestic product next year.

A separate report yesterday from the ratings agency Standard & Poor's said Europe was no longer likely to remain immune from the US-prompted slowdown and should be braced for a period of stagflation, while the chief executive of Britain's biggest independent financial adviser warned that Britain was heading for further trouble.

"The state of the economy is very worrying and I don't think people have properly factored in how bad things really are," said Hargreaves Lansdown boss Peter Hargreaves.

Tags: uk recession, economics

parti socialiste

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 17:41:44 GMT

clipped by: rnormand

Clip Source: www.lemonde.fr

Le congrès du Parti socialiste, qui se tiendra à Reims en novembre, sera essentiel, pour la France et pour la gauche. Nous vivons, en effet, un moment historique. La crise financière accentue et accélère le déplacement de la puissance économique au profit des pays émergents : le PIB des pays du Nord, qui entrent en stagflation, représente désormais à peine la moitié du PIB mondial. Ce monde en bouleversement est dangereux, marqué par la montée des logiques autoritaires, russe et chinoise, face à l'unilatéralisme américain, il est gros de conflits régionaux, caractérisé par de profonds déséquilibres, par l'accroissement des inégalités, par la multiplication des crises.

IndyMac Bankruptcy: A Witness and Dueling Headlines

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 06:06:41 GMT

clipped by: zizzy

Clip Source: culturekitchen.com

Let me introduce this with dueling headlines. From the Pasadena Star-News:

IndyMac appears close to collapse: US regulators may not be ready to protect bank

And from the LA Times:

IndyMac denies that it's close to collapse: "Depositors have been pulling money from the Pasadena-based thrift, whose share price is down 90% this year."

Today, my brother saw a crowd at the Duarte IndyMac Bank desperately trying to get their savings out. Many elderly people were claiming that they are being offered dollar for dollar on the first $100,000...after that only fifty cents on the dollar.

This, my friends, was the result of the Harding/Coolidge/Hoover economy...and it is the result of the Bush/McCain economy. Economic collapse

It seems to me was are heading for a bizarre combination of the Great Depression and the Stagflation of the Nixon/Ford/Carter years. To paraphrase "Those Were the Days," the All in the Family Theme Song:

"Mister, we could use a man like FDR again."

German industrial output falls sharply

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 18:24:42 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.ft.com

The eurozone economy has shown fresh signs of spluttering, with German industrial production dropping unexpectedly sharply in May - the strongest monthly fall since August 1997.

The latest evidence of a substantial economic slowdown underway will add to fears of “stagflation” – slow growth combined with high inflation. It comes just days after the European Central Bank raised its main interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.25 per cent to avert rising inflationary risks.

Data last Friday had shown the sixth consecutive fall in German industrial orders – which offer a guide to future activity levels. But the latest figures showed German industrial production had already dropped by 2.4 per cent in May, extending a 0.2 per cent fall in April.

Germany’s manufacturing sector has largely powered economic growth in Europe’s largest economy in recent years.

Spain and Italy – and potentially even France – are in increasing danger of slipping into recession

Tags: economy, manufacturing, i-production, i-decrease, i-unexpected, i-accleleration

Ron Paul: "Something Big"

Thu, 03 Jul 2008 08:22:10 GMT

clipped by: orgone_bosco

Clip Source: www.campaignforliberty.com

Something Big is Going On

Update: Digg it! Let’s get this onto the front page of digg.com and spread the message.

I’m convinced the time is now upon us that some Big Events are about to occur. These fast-approaching events will not go unnoticed. They will affect all of us. They will not be limited to just some areas of our country. The world economy and political system will share in the chaos about to be unleashed.

my greatest fear is that the course on which we find ourselves will bring even greater conflict and economic suffering to the innocent people of the world—unless we quickly change our ways.

The financial crisis, still in its early stages,

Little doubt exists as to whether we’ll get stagflation. The question that will soon be asked is: When will the stagflation become an inflationary depression?

The mistakes made with excessive credit at artificially low rates are huge, and the market is demanding a correction.

it need not be so bad if we do the right thing

self reliance

Greenspan Doesn't Expect More Market "Bubbles"

Fri, 30 May 2008 23:16:10 GMT

clipped by: Forbes Markets

Clip Source: www.reuters.com

Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Friday that he does not expect another "bubble" in world markets for a long time, and that central banks at any rate do not control the long-term interest rates that can be related to bubbles.

He conceded that stagflation -- a combination of weak growth and high inflation -- was a real concern.

He also said past experience at the Fed has showed that central banks can do little to pre-emptively act to prevent bubbles in financial markets, referring to interest rate hikes in the early 1990s failing to prevent excessive confidence in stock markets.

Tags: alan greenspan, financial bubbles, federal reserve, central banks

Western economies experiencing early stages of stagflation

Tue, 27 May 2008 12:49:41 GMT

clipped by: AinzF

Clip Source: www.marketoracle.co.uk

The inflation genie is well and truly out of the lamp and with the Federal Reserve reducing their growth forecasts for the year yesterday, the U.S. and most western economies are now facing a nasty bout of stagflation.

Stagflation has arrived and yet there continues to be a ‘hear no evil, see no evil' and head in the sand attitude and a wishful thinking that these conditions will soon disappear and we can return to the “good” decade of the 1990's. While we all hope for such an outcome, the reality is likely to be much different as the benign financial and economic years of recent history degenerate into a far less benign and challenging financial and economic era.

This new era will be marked by low or no growth and high inflation and gold and silver's finite qualities will come into their own again. Real diversification and risk aversion remains essential.

Tags: economy, economics, inflation, stagflation

They're Wrong About Oil, By George

Thu, 22 May 2008 14:57:44 GMT

clipped by: Steve McGookin

Clip Source: www.timesonline.co.uk

Instead of just causing a brief recession, the oil and commodity boom threatens a prolonged period of global “stagflation”, the lethal combination of high inflation and economic stagnation last seen in the world economy in the 1970s and early 1980s. This would be a disaster far more momentous than the repossession of a few million homes or collapse of a couple of banks.

the boom in oil and commodity prices, if it lasts much longer, could reverse the globalisation process that has delivered 20 years of almost uninterrupted growth to America and Europe and rescued billions of people from extreme poverty in China, India, Brazil and many other countries.

Oil Passes 40% Gain Year To Date

Thu, 22 May 2008 14:27:23 GMT

clipped by: Forbes Markets
clipper's remarks: That would be $135 a barrel.

Clip Source: www.reuters.com

Oil jumped over the $135 a barrel mark CLc1, bringing its gains for the year to date to 40 percent and fuelling worries the United States is sliding into stagflation -- a vicious combination of rising inflation and tepid growth.

Battle Of the Proxy Incumbents

Sun, 11 May 2008 09:23:56 GMT

clipped by: merrie
clipper's remarks: Fiction can be fun! Ultimately though, this fanciful bit of twaddle is unlikely to stick, what with McCain's voting record so thoroughly refuting it. And in a lot of ways, that's too bad. If only we could look back at McCain's votes and comments on the wildly effective investment income tax cuts and find a man who embraced pro-growth fiscal policy as eagerly as Bush, we might be better assured of the continuity of certain beneficial policies that Obama so laments.

Clip Source: www.suitablyflip.com

In case your cable's been out for a couple weeks, the grand, unifying, post-partisan argument in favor of electing this New Kind of Politician is that John McCain, the "Maverick", the Gang of 14er, the pathologically centrist aisle-crosser and frequent thorn in his own party's side, represents George Bush's third term.

Still, Barack assures us that John McCain's and George Bush's policy stances are indistinguishable, so let's so stipulate. Is that worse than the alternative?

After all, what President in the modern era does Senator Obama's agenda most resemble?

Huge expansion of the federal government? Check. Letting entitlement spending run wild? Check. "Windfall profit" taxes on oil companies? Check. Big doofy grin? Check.

Do political fashions run in 30-year cycles? If so, then get ready for the fabulous comeback of energy crises, stagflation, high unemployment, and national malaise.

(Obama caricature by Cox & Forkum)

Tags: mccain, obama, huge government expansion, entitlement spending, oil company taxes, stagflation, high unemployment

Some economic predictions for the coming months

Sun, 09 Mar 2008 22:47:21 GMT

clipped by: willhelm
clipper's remarks: 6) China's stock market will collapse next year. China will go into a recession. There will be huge amounts of violence

7) Multiple banks will probably go insolvent. They are holding too much crap paper. There will be an extreme tightening of consumer debt of all kinds, including consumer loans, credit cards and mortgages (this is already beginning, but you ain't seen nothing yet). Even people with good credit will start having difficulty getting loans.

8) Protectionism is going to get stronger. Even if Clinton, a free trader, is put in power, by the time the 2010 Congressional elections are over no "free trade" bill will be able to pass Congress and in fact actual tariffs are likely to be put in place.
9) I wouldn't be surprised, at some point, to see capital controls put in place to stop money-flight from the US.

10) When the full extent of how bad things are hits Joe Public, expect a move for reregulation of Wall Street and to reinstitute something similiar to Glass-Steaga

Clip Source: firedoglake.com

1) Housing prices and sales will continue to decline. Expect 3 years before the bottom,

2) Commerical real-estate will suffer a steep decline as well.

3) Consumer demand will drop. Unemployment will rise.

4) The US will go into a recession at best, a depression at worst. Expect first stagflation (high inflation and high unemployment), both because of the increased price of imports and deliberate pump priming by the Fed, then deflation, as asset prices collapse so hard they take everything else with them. The other likely scenario is stagflation followed by hyperinflation. Formal inflation numbers put out will become not just a joke amongst market-watchers, but amongst the actual population. Same thing with unemployment numbers.

5) The Asian economies are not going to "decouple", they are going to have their own financial crises and recessions. Yes, this includes China.

New data fuel fears over US economy

Mon, 03 Mar 2008 18:17:35 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.ft.com

The US manufacturing sector contracted last month, increasing the risk that the economy could fall into recession, but the market was largely relieved that the manufacturers avoided a worse fate. Separate data showed construction spending fell sharply.

Production growth slowed as manufacturers cut back on spending amid fears of a US economic slowdown. New orders contracted for a third consecutive month slipping to 0.4 percentage points to 49.1.

Prices paid by manufacturers rose again, although at a slightly slower rate than the previous month, as commodity costs continued to surge.

Construction spending fell 1.7 per cent in January, the sharpest decline in 14 years,

“Activity is plunging faster than ever in the residential sector and the long-feared collapse in commercial real estate

“Albeit, not at levels like the 1970’s version of stagflation, the report points to sub-trend growth and elevated price pressures,“

activity now appears to be materialising,”

Tags: economy, business, i-turnover, i-decrease

The Commander-in-Chef Cooks Up a Storm

Sat, 01 Mar 2008 15:30:32 GMT

clipped by: Geshizar
clipper's remarks: "Bush: And as people are now beginning to see, Iraq is changing, democracy is beginning to take hold. And I'm convinced 50 years from now people look back and say thank God there was those who were willing to sacrifice.

"Curry: But you're saying you're going to have to carry that burden... Some Americans believe that they feel they're carrying the burden because of this economy.

"Bush: Yeah, well --

"Curry: They say -- they say they're suffering because of this.

"Bush: I don't agree with that.

"Curry: You don't agree with that? Has nothing do with the economy, the war? The spending on the war?

"Bush: I don't think so. I think actually, the spending on the war might help with jobs.

"Curry: Oh, yeah?

"Bush: Yeah, because we're buying equipment, and people are working. I think this economy is down because we built too many houses."

Clip Source: www.tomdispatch.com

In the week that oil prices once again crested above $100 a barrel and more Americans than at any time since the Great Depression owed more on their homes than the homes were worth; in the year that the subprime market crashed, global markets shuddered, the previously unnoticed credit-default swap market threatened to go into the tank, stagflation returned, unemployment rose, the "R" word (for recession) hit the headlines (while the "D" word lurked), within weeks of the fifth anniversary of his invasion of Iraq, the President of the United States officially discovered the war economy.

George W. Bush and Laura Bush were being interviewed by NBC's Ann Curry when the subject turned to the war in Iraq. Curry reminded the President that his wife had once said, "No one suffers more than their president. I hope they know the burden of worry that's on his shoulders every single day for our troops." The conversation continued thusly:

Tags: economy, bush, united states, war on terror, inept leaders

Bush claims no recession. We're Fu@ked

Sat, 01 Mar 2008 11:16:16 GMT

clipped by: righthand
clipper's remarks: After 7 years of LIES and DECEPTION, who would you believe? Could he not be right just for once? Could he not say, just to save us all who need a recession like a month in Iraq, that there is a recession there is one. Then when he's wrong as usual, we can all be Ok! Might work. Can't be worse than now.

Could someone not stop him popping up at every microphone that there is? It's past embarrassing.

Clip Source: news.bbc.co.uk

Bush claims no recession for US

President Bush said the economy had slowed down

President George W Bush has said the US economy is not heading towards recession but is in a "slowdown".

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, said keeping the economy growing was becoming more difficult

Bernanke said its job of encouraging growth was harder than in 2001, when the US suffered a recession, because of rising inflation and energy prices

Rising energy prices were creating "inflationary stress"

Bernanke was speaking as government figures showed the economy expanding at its slowest rate since 2002 and the price of oil continued to rise. It hit over $100 dollars a barrel in trading in New Yor

He predicted the US would avoid 1970s style stagflation, when soaring rates of inflation accompanied a slowing economy

Bush rejected calls for a second package of measures, telling reporters at the White House press conference: "why don't we let the stimulus package we have a chance to kick in"

Tags: bush, lies, media