Clipmarks | Gallup Clips

50% and +8% in October usually mean a win

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 03:25:14 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Of 16 who've reached 50% in October, 14 won. Of 14 who've had an 8% lead in October, 13 won [corrected - I originally typo'd 23 instead of 13].

Clip Source: sage

Saturday's Gallup tracking poll revealed two big numbers for Obama. Obama hit 50% in the tracking poll and took an 8% lead over McCain. This isn't the first time that Obama has hit the 50% mark, and it isn't the first time he has held a lead of 8%; but now we are in the last month of the campaign and numbers like these in October usually mean electoral success in November.

Using Gallup's compendium of presidential trial heat polling since 1936, I counted16 candidates who received 50% support or higher in an October Gallup poll. Hitting the 50% mark was a very good predictor of victory. Of those 16 candidates, just two failed to win the general election--Al Gore and Thomas Dewey.

An 8% lead has also been difficult for trailing candidates to overcome. Only one candidate who held a lead of at least 8% in October ended up losing

thirteen other occasions since 1936 where a candidate had an 8% lead or greater in at least one October poll, and in each case that candidate won

Tags: obama, polls, elections

Gallup: Obama sustains largest lead since July

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 18:40:33 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Up eight nationwide, 50% to 42%; largest since international trip; debate results not fully a factor until tomorrow

Clip Source: www.gallup.com

Tags: polls, politics, obama, mccain

USAToday/Gallup on Financial Crisis

Mon, 29 Sep 2008 18:33:59 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Only Obama squeaks by with a positive rating

Clip Source: www.pollster.com

US: USA Today/Gallup on Financial Crisis

If you haven't seen it yet, this Gallup analysis of the latest USA Today/Gallup poll on the Wall Street crisis, conducted over the weekend, is a must-read. The poll...:

finds more Americans disapproving than approving of how most of the major national political players have handled the recent problems on Wall Street. Only Barack Obama squeaks by with more Americans approving than disapproving of his performance on the issue, 46% to 43%."

Tags: polls, economy

New Gallup/USA Today Poll: 46% to 34% Obama wins debate

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 22:52:02 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: And which candidate offered best proposals, Obama was favored 52%-35%. Asked who spun better old-timey yarns instead of answering questions ... nah, I just made that up.

Clip Source: blogs.usatoday.com

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Obama did better job in first debate

A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows 46% of people who watched Friday night's presidential debate say Democrat Barack Obama did a better job than Republican John McCain; 34% said McCain did better.

Obama scored even better -- 52%-35% -- when debate-watchers were asked which candidate offered the best proposals for change to solve the country’s problems.

Three in 10 said their opinion of Obama became more favorable after seeing the debate, compared to 14% who said less favorable and 54% who said it didn't make much difference.

More than one-third of viewers, or 37%, said they had less confidence in McCain to fix economic problems after seeing the debate; 23% said more. For Obama, the survey results were 34% more confidence, 26% less.

Obama held a 5-percentage-point lead over McCain, 49%-45%, in the Gallup tracking poll taken Wednesday through Friday. Tomorrow's poll will be the first to include impact from the debate.

Tags: mccain, obama, polls, debate

Who are Blue Star Families for Obama?

Sun, 28 Sep 2008 19:31:46 GMT

clipped by: glennbah
clipper's remarks: We are teachers and lawyers, homemakers and small business owners. We coach soccer and volunteer in our children's schools. And at the end of the day, there is often an empty seat at our kitchen table because our loved ones are serving far from home.
We are teachers and lawyers, homemakers and small business owners. We coach soccer and volunteer in our children's schools. And at the end of the day, there is often an empty seat at our kitchen table because our loved ones are serving far from home.
We represent all branches of the armed services.

We come from small towns, and the big city lights. We are wives, husbands, mothers and fathers. We are daughters, sons, and the entire extended family that gives support during deployments. Our backgrounds may be diverse, but we are united in the cause of service to our country.

We are the Military Family.

Clip Source: www.bsf4o.com

Americans trust the military far more than the media, congress, even churches according to Gallup's latest poll. Americans recognize the steadfast devotion to country that is shown by military families. Many voters, especially swing voters, will vote for the person they think has the most support from the military community. So your opinion is crucial to this election! Too many ordinary Americans think that military families all support John McCain. Make a difference! Let America know that you want Barack Obama to be the next Commander in Chief!

[Video]

Military family members...the Obama campaign is listening to your concerns

Michelle Obama has chosen to champion military families, giving voice to the countless men and women who serve alongside active duty service members. Be sure to check our calendar for upcoming military roundtables. Listen to Michelle and hear her address your issues:

Friday Night Lights

Thu, 25 Sep 2008 14:55:21 GMT

clipped by: Matt Kirdahy
clipper's remarks: If voters haven't already chosen sides after the debate postponement issue, both candidates racing tight into Friday's showdown. Advice for the candidates, according to Rove's column: be perfect.

Clip Source: online.wsj.com

The First Debate Could Be Decisive

So whether this year's first presidential debate between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain is Friday night or postponed a few days, it may be the fall's most critical event. In the nine first debates since 1960, the perceived winner of the debate averaged a 4.2 point net swing in the Gallup poll.

Spend time describing problems. In the '92 debates, Bill Clinton and Ross Perot established personal links with voters as much from how they portrayed the nation's challenges as from their proposals to address them.

Only children just as healthy, social, adjusted

Thu, 25 Sep 2008 12:39:24 GMT

clipped by: Tri-City Psychology

Clip Source: www.goerie.com

Shereen Peterson worries about her son.

There are the usual worries, sure. Sugar, sleep, tantrums, germs. But the big one -- the nagging worry that has latched on to her psyche with all the strength and perseverance of a toddler -- is his solitude.

"I worry he'll be spoiled," says Peterson, 37. "I want him to know the world doesn't revolve around him. I worry he'll be needy and clingy to Mommy, that when I send him off to school he won't want to go.

Statistically speaking, Peterson's fears aren't likely to come true. Study after study prove only children are no more spoiled, lonely or maladjusted than their peers who have siblings.

only children (and their parents) still shoulder a hefty load of stigmas -- many dating back to 1896, when psychologist G. Stanley Hall said "being an only child is a disease in itself." Only 3 percent of Americans think a single-child family is the ideal family size, according to a 2004 Gallup poll.

Tags: only children, chicago tribune, heidi stevens

Will Durst: Economy piranha bites McCain. Again.

Mon, 22 Sep 2008 01:58:09 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: "escorted the French philosopher Laissez-Faire out of range of the security cameras then ...

Clip Source: www.truthdig.com

it’s that nasty old economy

Earlier this year he said he didn’t know much about it. And it’s not that hard to believe him

the Daily Gallup Kool-Aid

transformed Dr. Unconcerned into Mr. Proactive

even with the makeup and the rubber mask, the role still seems a bit off kilter

so notoriously free market that he escorted the French philosopher Laissez-Faire out of range of the security cameras

then locked him in the evidence room behind a file cabinet wrapped in a pile of piano blankets.

Responding to the recent Chernobyl-sized meltdown on Wall Street

The fundamentals of our economy are strong,” demonstrating a cluelessness you don’t normally associate with folks still in possession of a pulse

McCain jumped off the Deregulation Express so fast, that Jamaican Bolt guy probably tried to buy his shoes

He did talk about dismantling the Old Boy Network in Washington, and that could actually work. Especially when you consider the senator’s current standing as Ranking Old Boy.

Tags: mccain, economy

Election 08: How's it looking?

Sun, 21 Sep 2008 23:57:01 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Mouse over states to get current numbers and history. I'm surprised that WV is only "barely Republican;" FL now within margin of error; Obama expands nationwide Gallup lead by 1, to six points, since RNC. Overall so far, a narrow but widening Obama win. See map key at bottom of clip.

Clip Source: www.electoral-vote.com

Obama 273 McCain 265

Senate Dem 56 GOP 43 Ties 1

House Dem 242 GOP 193

Senate map and races

Downloadable polling data

Previous report

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This day in 2004

	Strong Dem (153)
	Weak Dem (45)
	Barely Dem (75)
	Exactly tied (0)
	Barely GOP (81)
	Weak GOP (38)
	Strong GOP (146)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained

Tags: election, politics, electoral votes

"Vieraan apuun emme turvaa"

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 21:59:11 GMT

clipped by: pekkasaukkonen
clipper's remarks: Suomella on turvallisuutta, puhtautta ja tulevaisuutta.

Clip Source: www.hs.fi

Enemmistö kävisi vapaaehtoisenkin armeijan

Päivitetty: 9.12.2007 10:36

Enemmistö suomalaisista asepalveluikäisistä miehistä kävisi armeijan, vaikka se olisi vapaaehtoista. Väli-Suomen sanomalehtien Sunnuntaisuomalaisen teettämän selvityksen mukaan 72 prosenttia asevelvollisuusikäisistä miehistä valitsisi vapaaehtoisessakin tilanteessa armeijan.

Vapaaehtoiseen armeijaan suhtautuvat kaikkein myönteisimmin nuorimmat vastaajat. 15–19-vuotiaista lähes 80 prosenttia valitsisi vapaaehtoisen armeijan. Suhtautuminen muuttuu kuitenkin iän karttuessa. 25–30-vuotiaista armeijan jättäisi käymättä noin 30 prosenttia.

Maanpuolustushenki on voimakkainta maaseudulla, missä armeijaikäisistä yli 80 prosenttia lähtisi vapaaehtoiseen armeijaan. Sen sijaan Helsingin seudulla asuvista miehistä 35 prosenttia jättäisi asepalveluksen väliin.

Tags: 2007, demokratian kehitys, forecast, ennusteet, finland, security, gallup(kyselyt)

Matti toi vain ihmisten tuntemukset esille

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 20:32:14 GMT

clipped by: pekkasaukkonen
clipper's remarks: .. ihmisten unelmiin vetoaminen on tehokasta vaikuttamista. Tähän perustuu moni asia maailmassa.

Clip Source: www.hs.fi

Vanhasen puutarhakaupunkimalli saa enemmistön tuen

53 prosenttia suomalaisista kannattaa Taloustutkimuksen kyselyn mukaan puutarhakaupunkimallia. Mallia kannatetaan erilaisissa perhemuodoissa lähes yhtä innokkaasti.

Taloustutkimuksen tutkimuspäällikkö Juho Rahkonen pitää mielenkiintoisena sitä, että erilaisten ruokakuntaryhmien välille ei muodostu asiassa mielipide-eroa.

"Pidän tätä tulosta hyvin yllättävänä", Rahkonen sanoo.

Tags: urban, vaalit, dream, finland, 2008, keskusta, gallup(kyselyt)

Gallup Daily: Obama Back in the Lead

Wed, 17 Sep 2008 19:01:39 GMT

clipped by: Wisco
clipper's remarks: I'm not yet vindicated, but I'm halfway there. I've been saying that McCain's numbers are a post-convention bounce -- that they'd come down again. I've also been saying that McCain knows this and that's why he's not acting like a candidate who's winning.

McCain is trending downward and, although bad economic news probably doesn't help, that trend began before Monday. As it has been throughout, this election is Barack Obama's to lose.

Clip Source: www.gallup.com

The Sept. 14-16 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama regaining a slight, although not statistically significant, edge over John McCain, 47% to 45%, among registered voters, marking the first time since the week of the Republican National Convention that McCain has not held at least a one percentage point margin over Obama.

From a broad perspective, the race remains a statistical tie. But there has been a general drift towards Obama since McCain moved to a five-point lead over Obama through the weekend after the GOP convention.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show that in each of these individual days (Monday and Tuesday) consumer ratings of the U.S. economy have become more negative. Similarly, in each of these individual days' interviewing, Obama has led McCain in election tracking.

Tags: news

Gallup admits: it only releases likely voter results when they favor McCain!

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 05:03:29 GMT

clipped by: hitchhiker08
clipper's remarks: Shucks - then who do you bellieve?!

Clip Source: www.dailykos.com

Gallup admits: it only releases likely voter results when they favor McCain!

The Gallup Daily Presidential tracking poll, which many of us follow more closely than we should, reports results based on a survey of registered voters. At some point in the future, Gallup is going to switch to likely voters for the tracking poll, but we don't know exactly when.

Dick Diver's diary :: ::

That poll, taken in the three days immediately following the Republican National Convention, showed by far the largest national lead McCain has ever had in any poll (54-44 among likely voters), and generated a tremendous amount of attention. It helped drive the buzz for all of last week -- that McCain got a huge bounce from his convention, that Palin was a game-changer, that Obama was in big trouble, etc.

We feel that the trends among registered voters give us the best way to track election preferences in our daily poll,

In other words, Gallup is admitting the following:

results were less accurate

Tags: gallup, research, us, presidential elections, mccain, obama, conventions

Independents swing towards McCain

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 04:43:54 GMT

clipped by: chestnut501
clipper's remarks: Independents to determine election

Clip Source: www.politico.com

In the wake of Sarah Palin, John McCain has opened up a 15-point lead among independents, according to a new Gallup Poll — and Barack Obama has a real problem.

Since the GOP convention and his selection of the Alaska governor as his running mate, McCain has changed a months-long tie among independents into a 52 to 37 percent advantage. Support for McCain among self-described "conservative Democrats" has jumped 10 points, to 25 percent, signaling the shift among swing voters to McCain.

Democrats Slip in Battle for Congress

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:03:16 GMT

clipped by: chestnut501
clipper's remarks: From Double-Digits to just 3 points

Clip Source: www.gallup.com

Democrats’ double-digit lead on the “generic ballot” slips to 3 points

PRINCETON, NJ -- A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.