Clipmarks | wildcat's singularity collection

No Time for the Singularity

Thu, 03 Jul 2008 11:24:30 GMT

clipped by: wildcat

Scientists like to low-ball their estimates. The now-famous IPCC scenarios for the effects of climate change are already known to be woefully, unrealistically conservative (Freeman Dyson's recent comments notwithstanding). Arctic changes expected 20 years from now are happening now, and in North America the beginning of spring has already been pushed back by two weeks, which is enough to play havoc with the fertility cycle of many migratory birds (among other consequences). The worst-case scenarios used in public debate ignore some extremely worrisome factors, such as the possible release of oceanic methane from clathrates. If we're going to deal with this problem, we have to do it now, as in, within the term of your next government.

The ultimate in technological optimism is the idea of the technological singularity, which posits that technological advance is exponential and, driven by progress in artificial intelligence, will soon hit the vertical slope of the curve.

Tags: singularity, scenarios

“What is Life?” Evolution of Robots is Causing Scientists to Question

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 10:04:36 GMT

clipped by: wildcat
clipper's remarks: “Robots are not human, but humans aren’t the only things that have emotions,” she said. “The question for robots is not, Will they ever have human emotions? Dogs don’t have human emotions, either, but we all agree they have genuine emotions. The question is, what are the emotions that are genuine for the robot?”

Clip Source: www.dailygalaxy.com

There is ongoing debate about what constitutes life. Synthetic bacteria for example, are created by man and yet also alive. Some go so far as to say that robot “emotions” may already have occurred—that current robots have not only displayed emotions, but in some ways have experienced them.

“We’re all machines,” says Rodney Brooks author of “Flesh and Machines,” and former director of M.I.T.’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, “Robots are made of different sorts of components than we are — we are made of biomaterials; they are silicon and steel — but in principle, even human emotions are mechanistic.” A robot’s level of a feeling like sadness could be set as a number in computer code, he said. But isn’t a human’s level of sadness basically a number, too, just a number of the amounts of various neurochemicals circulating in the brain? Why should a robot’s numbers be any less authentic than a human’s?

Tags: robotics, intelligence, life

One Singular Sensation

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 14:49:01 GMT

clipped by: wildcat
clipper's remarks: a worthwhile read

Clip Source: www.sciam.com

One Singular Sensation: Will We Upload Our Brains, and Other Questions Related to "The Coming Singularity"

Podcast Transcription

Different people believe different things but I am going to give you a sort of smorgasbord here. The elements of the singularity are: machines become super intelligent. This is kind of the seminal event. What I mean by super intelligent is, far smarter than human beings. So what happens then? Well they're smarter than us, so they kind of don't need us. There is a self-replicating aspect, in other words, okay? They're very [much] smarter than human beings, these machines, and they're going to start reproducing themselves and they won't need us at that point.

A computer generation could be a week; a computer generation could be two or three days. The point is that you can go from generation to generation and every generation being much smarter than the one before it in a few days

Tags: singularity

IBM-Swiss scientists to create artifical human brain by 2015

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 16:13:30 GMT

clipped by: wildcat

Clip Source: memebox.com

Director Henry Markram of the IBM-Swiss Blue Brain project believes that his team of up to 125 researchers is on target to create the world’s first artificial brain by as early as 2015.

In June 2005, IBM and the Swiss Brain Mind Institute announced a plan to create a digital 3D replica of the human brain. Named after the IBM Blue Gene supercomputer, the Blue Brain Project has started modeling, in precise detail, the cellular infrastructure of the cerebral neocortex.

Although Markram expects his creation may eventually learn to speak, he is not holding his breath waiting for consciousness to rise from its brain. What he is after is something far more useful than a talking machine. By creating a better understanding of how human brains perform, doctors will learn more about why our brains fail.

Disorders such as depression, schizophrenia, and dementia are the price we pay for having complicated brains.

Tags: artificial, brain, human, health, medicine, computing

Singularities Enough, and Time

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 15:57:57 GMT

clipped by: wildcat
clipper's remarks: A fascinating take by Jamais Cascio, clear headed and to the point

Clip Source: www.openthefuture.com

• There may be developed computers that are "awake" and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is "yes, we can", then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter.)
• Large computer networks (and their associated users) may "wake up" as a superhumanly intelligent entity.
• Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
• Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect.

You don't have to believe in godlike super-AIs to see that this kind of intelligence enhancement can lead to some pretty significant results as the systems get more complex, datasets get bigger, connections get faster, and interfaces become ever more useable.

Tags: singularity, technology, future

The Petabyte Age: Because More Isn't Just More — More Is Different

Wed, 25 Jun 2008 12:05:03 GMT

clipped by: wildcat

Clip Source: www.wired.com

Sensors everywhere. Infinite storage. Clouds of processors. Our ability to capture, warehouse, and understand massive amounts of data is changing science, medicine, business, and technology. As our collection of facts and figures grows, so will the opportunity to find answers to fundamental questions. Because in the era of big data, more isn't just more. More is different.

Feeding the Masses:
Data In, Crop Predictions Out

Chasing the Quark:
Sometimes You Need to Throw Information Away

Watching the Skies:
Space Is Big — But Not Too Big to Map

Scanning Our Skeletons:
Bone Images Show Wear and Tear

Spotting the Hot Zones:
Now We Can Monitor Epidemics Hour by Hour

Sorting the World:
Google Invents New Way to Manage Data

Visualizing Big Data:
Bar Charts for Words

Tags: petabyte, data

The One Machine

Tue, 24 Jun 2008 10:44:18 GMT

clipped by: wildcat
clipper's remarks: Tap Into the 12-Million-Teraflop Handheld Megacomputer

Clip Source: www.wired.com

Never mind Web 3.0: The next stage in technological evolution is a single worldwide computer. Collectively, we are already assembling this megacomputer from our billions of Net-connected PCs, cell phones, PDAs, and the like. As an increasing number and variety of devices are lashed to one another via the Internet and other communication systems, they form the components of what we might call the One Machine.

Its circuit board encompasses the million copper wires and radio connections linking all the chips contained in the gadgets in your pocket, office, and car. Instead of being powered by a mere billion tiny transistors, as your typical personal desktop is, it runs on a billion PC chips, each with its own billion transistors. Its memory is the collective hard disks and flash drives of the world. Its RAM is the sum of all memory chips online. Every second, a Library of Congress worth of data flows through it. The program it runs — its initial OS — is the World Wide Web.

Tags: tech evolution, megacomputer, connectivity

Singularity economics and the future of money

Wed, 18 Jun 2008 11:12:36 GMT

clipped by: wildcat

Clip Source: www.depressedmetabolism.com

On his website, Robin Hanson discusses an unfilled niche in economics which he calls the “economics of science fiction” or “economics of future technology.” Another modern phrase would be “Singularity economics.” Hanson describes the economics of science fiction as the:

“economic analysis of the sorts of assumptions typically explored in science fiction. It is distinguished from the typical hard science fiction analysis by using the tools of professional economics, rather than the intuitive social scientist of the typical engineer. And it is distinguished from most economics by taking seriously the idea that we can now envision the outlines of new technologies which may have dramatic impacts on our society.”

One interesting question is how future advances in science and human nature will impact the monetary system. Two developments that may have a substantial impact on the future of money are molecular nanotechnology and the stability of governments.

Tags: singularity, economics

The Singularity Frankenstein

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 09:56:15 GMT

clipped by: wildcat
clipper's remarks: Singularity defender George Dvorsky is spot-on when he calls for the singularity-aware to “frame the issue as a scientific endeavor and pitch the various scenarios as hypotheses” and in that “we need to keep the language within the scientific vernacular”. And that’s exactly what’s NOT happening.

Clip Source: www.memebox.com

When exploring the possible futures ahead of us one sooner or later encounters The Singularity memeplex, a concept with multiple meanings that people now generally associate with exponentialist Ray Kurzweil’s definition, “technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”. He and others argue this will come about as the result of human-trumping or super-human-enabling artificial intelligence that fundamentally transforms our system and ourselves.

While the notion of a big-ass capital-S singularity is a very important concept, especially for future interested noobs attempting to comprehend the general ramifications of runaway technology growth, I agree with the likes of Eliezer Yudkowsky that it’s become a most un-scientific mash-up of several different schools of little-s singularity thought, something he appropriately calls “Singularity paste”.

Tags: singularity, frankenstein, paste, mishmash

The Galactic Internet

Tue, 10 Jun 2008 16:24:32 GMT

clipped by: wildcat

Clip Source: superconcepts.blogspot.com

We all know how the internet has changed our lives. It's not souly because of the information it can fill our minds with, but because of the applications that it brings us. We can go shopping, check flights, make money, network with people, form movements, archive entertainment, connect businesses, and lots more.

There's no knowing where the internet will take us in the next 10-20 years. What if, we were to look far further into the future?

This century we are closer than we have ever been to discovering alien life. If it exists, we may well discover it in the next few decades. Far more significant however, will be the discovery of intelligent life. The implications of discovering an extra terrestrial concious life form are immense. It will shake the entire foundations of our society. It will give us new perspectives on both the problems and pleasures of human life.

Tags: internet, alien, life, intelligent

The Future Is Now? Pretty Soon, at Least

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 11:34:49 GMT

clipped by: wildcat

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

Before we get to Ray Kurzweil’s plan for upgrading the “suboptimal software” in your brain, let me pass on some of the cheery news he brought to the World Science Festival last week in New York.

Do you have trouble sticking to a diet? Have patience. Within 10 years, Dr. Kurzweil explained, there will be a drug that lets you eat whatever you want without gaining weight

Worried about greenhouse gas emissions? Have faith. Solar power may look terribly uneconomical at the moment, but with the exponential progress being made in nanoengineering, Dr. Kurzweil calculates that it’ll be cost-competitive with fossil fuels in just five years, and that within 20 years all our energy will come from clean sources.

Are you depressed by the prospect of dying? Well, if you can hang on another 15 years, your life expectancy will keep rising every year faster than you’re aging

t may sound too good to be true, but even his critics acknowledge he’s not your ordinary sci-fi fantasist

Tags: ray kurzweil, singularity, future

Waiting for the Rapture

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 09:42:42 GMT

clipped by: wildcat

Clip Source: www.spectrum.ieee.org

Technological convergence will change our lives but won't make them indenfinitely long

Across cultures, classes, and aeons, people have yearned to transcend death.

Bear that history in mind as you consider the creed of the singularitarians. Many of them fervently believe that in the next several decades we’ll have computers into which you’ll be able to upload your consciousness—the mysterious thing that makes you you. Then, with your consciousness able to go from mechanical body to mechanical body, or virtual paradise to virtual paradise, you’ll never need to face death, illness, bad food, or poor cellphone reception.

Now you know why the singularity has also been called the rapture of the geeks.

The singularity is supposed to begin shortly after engineers build the first computer with greater-than-human intelligence.

Tags: singularity, rapture

Signs of the Singularity

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 08:49:49 GMT

clipped by: wildcat
clipper's remarks: By Vernor Vinge
First Published June 2008

Clip Source: www.spectrum.ieee.org

Hints of the singularity's approach can be found in the arguments of its critics

I think it's likely that with technology we can in the fairly near future create or become creatures of more than human intelligence. Such a technological singularity would revolutionize our world, ushering in a posthuman epoch. If it were to happen a million years from now, no big deal. So what do I mean by “fairly near” future? In my 1993 essay, “The Coming Technological Singularity,” I said I'd be surprised if the singularity had not happened by 2030. I'll stand by that claim, assuming we avoid the showstopping catastrophes—things like nuclear war, superplagues, climate crash—that we properly spend our anxiety upon.

The AI Scenario: We create superhuman artificial intelligence (AI) in computers.

The IA Scenario: We enhance human intelligence through human-to-computer interfaces—that is, we achieve intelligence amplification (IA).

Tags: vernor vinge, singularity

Coming soon? or not?

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 08:19:24 GMT

clipped by: wildcat

Clip Source: www.softmachines.org

Are we imminently facing The Singularity? This is the hypothesised moment of technological transcendence, in the concept introduced by mathematician and science fiction writer Vernor Vinge, when accelerating technological change leads to a recursively self-improving artificial intelligence of superhuman capabilities, with literally unknowable and ineffable consequences. The most vocal proponent of this eschatology is Ray Kurzweil, whose promotion of the idea takes to the big screen this year with the forthcoming release of the film The Singularity is Near.

Kurzweil describes the run-up to The Singularity: “Within a quarter century, nonbiological intelligence will match the range and subtlety of human intelligence. It will then soar past it … Intelligent nanorobots will be deeply integrated in our bodies, our brains, and our environment, overcoming pollution and poverty, providing vastly extended longevity … and vastly enhanced human intelligence.

Tags: singularity, ray kurzweil, technological transcendence

Can the Singularity Save Us From Ourselves?

Sat, 24 May 2008 12:29:59 GMT

clipped by: wildcat
clipper's remarks: Persons who believe firmly in the inevitability of The Singularity might be surprised to learn that the default human society is the closed society, resistant to change. Most of them have never known anything but open societies, born of western civilization’s restless urge to expand intellectual horizons. They live in an exceptional time, in an exceptional society, yet somehow believe it to be the human default. That type of blindness comes from forgetting to study history.

Clip Source: memebox.com

The abstract concept of a Technological Singularity (TS) was made most famous in the recent past by inventor Ray Kurzweil. The concept has several overlapping meanings, but I like George Dvorsky’s definition best: The Singularity is a blindspot in our predictive thinking.

Humans are only evolved primates-monkeys and apes-with a limited conceptual vocabulary. We are easily impressed by our technological accomplishments. In networked opportunity societies, creative and inventive persons are able to feed off each others’ ideas so that during periods of economic surplus, the pace of innovation will take off. In dark ages, totalitarian societies where information is compartmentalized and otherwise restricted, innovation slows.

Caught up in the enthusiasm of a grand idea, humans prefer to remain buoyed up in the “vital importance” and “inevitability” of their visions.

Tags: singularity, technology, future