Clipmarks | masbury's 'elections' clips

How will election change the Senate?

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 18:50:31 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: How will the blue/red balance change? See probability graph at the bottom of the clip.

Clip Source: www.fivethirtyeight.com

Tags: senate, elections

NYT: Voter purges in 6 states may violate law

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 22:43:34 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Does not appear to be a partisan attempt

Clip Source: www.huffingtonpost.com

Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least six swing states have been removed from the rolls or have been blocked from registering in ways that appear to violate federal law, according to a review of state records and Social Security data by The New York Times.

The actions do not seem to be coordinated by one party or the other

Still, because Democrats have been more aggressive at registering new voters this year, according to state election officials, any heightened screening of new applications may affect their party's supporters disproportionately. The screening and trimming of voter registration lists in the six states -- Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina -- could also result in problems at the polls on Election Day: people who have been removed from the rolls are likely to show up only to be challenged by political party officials or election workers, resulting in confusion, long lines and heated tempers.

Tags: elections

50% and +8% in October usually mean a win

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 03:25:14 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Of 16 who've reached 50% in October, 14 won. Of 14 who've had an 8% lead in October, 13 won [corrected - I originally typo'd 23 instead of 13].

Clip Source: sage

Saturday's Gallup tracking poll revealed two big numbers for Obama. Obama hit 50% in the tracking poll and took an 8% lead over McCain. This isn't the first time that Obama has hit the 50% mark, and it isn't the first time he has held a lead of 8%; but now we are in the last month of the campaign and numbers like these in October usually mean electoral success in November.

Using Gallup's compendium of presidential trial heat polling since 1936, I counted16 candidates who received 50% support or higher in an October Gallup poll. Hitting the 50% mark was a very good predictor of victory. Of those 16 candidates, just two failed to win the general election--Al Gore and Thomas Dewey.

An 8% lead has also been difficult for trailing candidates to overcome. Only one candidate who held a lead of at least 8% in October ended up losing

thirteen other occasions since 1936 where a candidate had an 8% lead or greater in at least one October poll, and in each case that candidate won

Tags: obama, polls, elections

Prevent bailouts? Prohibit campaign contributions

Fri, 03 Oct 2008 21:02:29 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: We must advance to a system where elections are publicly funded and private donations are prohibited. Both of our candidates are connected by money to the banking industry. The industry's influence toward killing regulation far exceeds the public's influence in preserving it. Separating money from politics - as other nations have long done - is the only way home.

Clip Source: www.huffingtonpost.com

The crisis in the housing market occurred because banks figured out how to escape the risk that they might not be repaid when they issued mortgages. Instead of keeping the mortgages on their books, they sold them in complex "products" to investment banks.

The key point here is that because issuing loans was no longer risky to the banks, they marketed mortgages to people who would not otherwise be considered credit worthy.

This especially occurred in the form of "teaser rates." Interest on the mortgages in the first year was kept at very low levels

The government should have imposed limits on adjustable rate mortgages; deceptive lending practices should have been prevented; investment banks should have been required to hold greater amounts of funds in reserve than they did

none of this was done because Wall Street used its political muscle to oppose them.

It will take "clean elections"

financing electoral campaigns with public funds

to ensure that the wall

will be not be breached

Tags: politics, economy

Obama opens comfortable lead in Iowa

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 04:55:16 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Up by 12!

Clip Source: www.gazetteonline.com

Poll: Obama opens comfortable lead in Iowa

DES MOINES - Iowa has long been viewed as a battleground state, in part because of narrow margins of victory in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, but Barack Obama appears to have opened up a wide lead against John McCain.

THE POLL: The Des Moines Register, presidential race in Iowa of likely voters.

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 52 percent, John McCain 40 percent.

DETAILS: Conducted Sept. 8-10 by telephone with 801 Iowans. Sampling error margin plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

MORE: www.desmoinesregister.com

Tags: obama, iowa, mccain, politics

Mississippi GOP hides hot race illegally at ballot-bottom

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 04:55:45 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Restraining order now issued preventing ballot distribution; violation of MS election law

Clip Source: www.dailykos.com

with tight polls in the race to fill out the remaining four years of Trent Lott's term, the Mississippi GOP has succeeded (for now) with its innovative plan to help Interim Senator Wicker remain in office: hiding the race at the bottom of the November ballot.

Pike County Elections Commissioner Trudy Berger today has already obtained a temporary restraining order from the Hinds County Circuit Court, barring Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann and Governor Haley Barbour from sending the disputed ballots to County Election Boards.

How clear is the law?

SEC. 23-15-367. Arrangement of names of candidates, order of titles of offices, and printing of official ballot generally

... (2) The titles for the various offices shall be listed in the following order:

(a) Candidates for national office;
(b) Candidates for statewide office;
(c) Candidates for state district office;
(d) Candidates for legislative office;
(e) Candidates for countywide office;
(f) Candidates for county district office.

Tags: gop, politics

Greenwald: The Republicans' Cheerful Viciousness

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 21:18:56 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Rendering issues irrelevant and converting campaigns into culture wars (h/t ratilfar!)

Clip Source: www.salon.com

With last night's cheerfully vicious speeches from Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin, the Republicans did what they always do in order to win elections: they exploited raw cultural divides while mocking, belittling and demonizing Democratic leaders.

Ever since Ronald Reagan's election, this is what the Republicans do every four years. They render issues irrelevant and convert campaigns into cultural wars and personality referenda

Republicans are well aware that they can't possibly win the election if it is even partially decided based on issues. They need and intend to win despite the fact that Americans hate their positions on the issues, and to do that, they want to ensure that a majority of Americans love and respect the strong, honorable, principled, culturally familiar all-American mavericks John McCain and Sarah Palin

while strongly disliking that wishy-washy, snooty, foreign, exotic, self-absorbed Eastern elitist Barack Obama (even if he says the right things on issues).

Tags: republican

What Obama's done in the US Senate, Part 1

Mon, 01 Sep 2008 20:17:50 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: It's a rather distinguished record for a four-year Senator.

Clip Source: en.wikipedia.org

Legislation

See also: List of bills sponsored by Barack Obama in the United States Senate

Obama introduced two initiatives bearing his name: "Lugar–Obama," which expanded the Nunn–Lugar cooperative threat reduction concept to conventional weapons

and the "Coburn–Obama Transparency Act," which authorized the establishment of www.USAspending.gov, a web search engine.^[

Obama sponsored legislation requiring nuclear plant owners to notify state and local authorities of radioactive leaks

In December 2006, President Bush signed into law the "Democratic Republic of the Congo Relief, Security, and Democracy Promotion Act," marking the first federal legislation to be enacted with Obama as its primary sponsor

In January 2007, Obama co-sponsored the Honest Leadership and Open Government Act, which was signed into law in September 2007.

He introduced S. 453, a bill to criminalize deceptive practices in federal elections

Obama also introduced the Iraq War De-Escalation Act of 2007.

Tags: obama, senate

Super Tracker poll averages - note the trend

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 05:04:09 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Look at projection and trend since January and tell me which way we're headed.

Clip Source: www.fivethirtyeight.com

Tags: obama, mccain, polls, elections, supertracker

Paris Hilton thanks McCain for endorsement

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 02:46:50 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: "I'm a celebrity, too, but I'm not from the olden days"

Clip Source: www.funnyordie.com

[Video]

Tags: mccain, obama, elections

Real McCain 2 video is #1 on YouTube, #2 on Digg

Fri, 23 May 2008 05:19:31 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: More viewers than cable news shows. Will corporate media be shamed into returning to journalism?

Clip Source: www.huffingtonpost.com

Since The Real McCain 2 launched this past Sunday, over 1 million people have seen it! It's been the #1 most viewed video on YouTube

For the last seven years, the mainstream press has sacrificed its objectivity and courage in a pathetic attempt to appease conservatives, lest they be painted left-leaning.

We need to continue spreading videos

until our pleas for unbiased, hard-hitting journalism are heard by the corporate media.

especially when the presumptive GOP nominee can't get his basic facts right on Iran. Especially when the press is obsessed with Jeremiah Wright but won't go after McCain's endorsements (which he sought) from the viciously anti-Semitic Rev. John Hagee or the deeply bigoted Rev. Rod Parsley

[Video]

Tags: mccain, media, elections, politics, news

Wallis: How my faith influences my vote

Sat, 02 Aug 2008 02:15:59 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: "my faith commits me to a concern for "the common good"

Clip Source: blog.beliefnet.com

My faith and commitment as a follower of Jesus won't let me decide based solely on party, litmus test, emotional appeal, or group affiliation

I see a wide range of issues that are all in play with varying degrees of weight

And because my faith commits me to a concern for "the common good,"

I must have a special concern for the poor and vulnerable, and must even take the needs of my enemies into account

I can't simply vote on what's best for Christians

My Christian commitment obligates me to ask what's best for Muslims, Jews, atheists, Buddhists, and others

what's best for birds of the air, flowers of the field, and fish of the sea too. Since they don't have a vote, I need to try to speak on their behalf. And as a citizen of God's kingdom, which transcends all national boundaries, I can't simply vote based on what's best for U.S. citizens: My vote has to have in mind the good of Mexicans, Canadians, Iraqis, Iranians, Chinese, and Burundians as well.

my faith doesn't make my voting easier

Tags: elections, christian, religion, politics

McCain trash-talk worries some Repubs

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 00:11:20 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: After attracting followers by calls for respectful tone.

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

McCain Goes Negative, Worrying Some in G.O.P.

SPARKS, Nev. — In recent days Senator John McCain has charged that Senator Barack Obama “would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign,” tarred him as “Dr. No” on energy policy and run advertisements calling him responsible for high gas prices.

The old happy warrior side of Mr. McCain has been eclipsed a bit lately by a much more aggressive, and more negative, Mr. McCain

But some Republicans worry that by going negative so early, and initiating so many of the attacks himself rather than leaving them to others, Mr. McCain risks coming across as angry or partisan in a way that could turn off some independents who have been attracted by his calls for respectful campaigning.

An advertisement criticized Mr. Obama for the high price of gas. “Who can you thank for rising prices at the pump?” an announcer intoned, as chants of “Obama, Obama” were heard.

attacks could also undermine his argument

that he will champion a new brand of politics

Tags: mccain, campaign, elections

McCain promised "respectful campaign focused on issues"

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 23:57:33 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: "None of this negative stuff, though," Cindy added last May. "You won't see it come out of our side at all." Wow. What a difference two months can make!

Clip Source: news.yahoo.com

a strategy memo from McCain campaign manager Rick Davis

in March

"It is critical, as we prepare to face off with

their nominee, that we all follow John's lead and run a respectful campaign focused on the issues

Added Cindy McCain in May: "What you're going to see is a great debate.

None of this negative stuff, though. You won't see it come out of our side at all."

What happened to the honorable campaign McCain pledged to run?

McCain's false charge about why Obama canceled a visit to wounded troops in Germany was a low point for the former straight-talker. Wrote Joe Klein of Time Magazine, a previous McCain admirer:

This is the sort of thing you put on the air when:

1. You're desperate.

2. Your Middle East policy has been superseded by events and abandoned by your allies.

3. You apparently have nothing substantive to say

McCain's new ad linking Obama to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears is laughably frivolous, and another indication of how the McCain campaign has turned into amateur hour.

Tags: mccain, elections, politics

University Study: One third of McCain ads are Obama slams

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 23:43:12 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Only one of ten of Obama's criticize McCain

Clip Source: thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com

analysis by the Advertising Project of the University of Wisconsin

the Advertising Project’s analysis shows the divergent paths the two sides are taking in their commercial campaigns, in terms of both content and geography.

Mr. McCain has devoted a third of his spots to attacks on Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama has devoted 90 percent of his spots to positive messages about himself

Tags: mccain, elections, obama, media