Clipmarks | masbury's 'elections' clips

NYT: Voter purges in 6 states may violate law

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 22:43:34 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Does not appear to be a partisan attempt

Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least six swing states have been removed from the rolls or have been blocked from registering in ways that appear to violate federal law, according to a review of state records and Social Security data by The New York Times.

The actions do not seem to be coordinated by one party or the other

Still, because Democrats have been more aggressive at registering new voters this year, according to state election officials, any heightened screening of new applications may affect their party's supporters disproportionately. The screening and trimming of voter registration lists in the six states -- Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina -- could also result in problems at the polls on Election Day: people who have been removed from the rolls are likely to show up only to be challenged by political party officials or election workers, resulting in confusion, long lines and heated tempers.

Tags: elections

50% and +8% in October usually mean a win

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 03:25:14 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Of 16 who've reached 50% in October, 14 won. Of 14 who've had an 8% lead in October, 13 won [corrected - I originally typo'd 23 instead of 13].

Clip Source: sage

Saturday's Gallup tracking poll revealed two big numbers for Obama. Obama hit 50% in the tracking poll and took an 8% lead over McCain. This isn't the first time that Obama has hit the 50% mark, and it isn't the first time he has held a lead of 8%; but now we are in the last month of the campaign and numbers like these in October usually mean electoral success in November.

Using Gallup's compendium of presidential trial heat polling since 1936, I counted16 candidates who received 50% support or higher in an October Gallup poll. Hitting the 50% mark was a very good predictor of victory. Of those 16 candidates, just two failed to win the general election--Al Gore and Thomas Dewey.

An 8% lead has also been difficult for trailing candidates to overcome. Only one candidate who held a lead of at least 8% in October ended up losing

thirteen other occasions since 1936 where a candidate had an 8% lead or greater in at least one October poll, and in each case that candidate won

Tags: obama, polls, elections

McCain's Annapolis class rank? 894 out of 899

Wed, 04 Jun 2008 23:19:57 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: This is breaking new ground: he could be the first President from the bottom of his class. [By comparison, Obama's rank at Harvard Law: 1]

Clip Source: www.236.com

What do you call the person who graduates fifth from the bottom of his class at Annapolis? The Republican Party nominee for President. That's right. Senator John McCain actually graduated 894th out of 899 middies at the Naval Academy. Only five other crew cuts achieved less than John McCain did in his class at Annapolis.

Tags: mccain, obama, elections

Paris Hilton thanks McCain for endorsement

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 02:46:50 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: "I'm a celebrity, too, but I'm not from the olden days"

Clip Source: www.funnyordie.com

[Video]

Tags: mccain, obama, elections

University Study: One third of McCain ads are Obama slams

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 23:43:12 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Only one of ten of Obama's criticize McCain

Clip Source: thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com

analysis by the Advertising Project of the University of Wisconsin

the Advertising Project’s analysis shows the divergent paths the two sides are taking in their commercial campaigns, in terms of both content and geography.

Mr. McCain has devoted a third of his spots to attacks on Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama has devoted 90 percent of his spots to positive messages about himself

Tags: mccain, elections, obama, media

Wallis: How my faith influences my vote

Sat, 02 Aug 2008 02:15:59 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: "my faith commits me to a concern for "the common good"

Clip Source: blog.beliefnet.com

My faith and commitment as a follower of Jesus won't let me decide based solely on party, litmus test, emotional appeal, or group affiliation

I see a wide range of issues that are all in play with varying degrees of weight

And because my faith commits me to a concern for "the common good,"

I must have a special concern for the poor and vulnerable, and must even take the needs of my enemies into account

I can't simply vote on what's best for Christians

My Christian commitment obligates me to ask what's best for Muslims, Jews, atheists, Buddhists, and others

what's best for birds of the air, flowers of the field, and fish of the sea too. Since they don't have a vote, I need to try to speak on their behalf. And as a citizen of God's kingdom, which transcends all national boundaries, I can't simply vote based on what's best for U.S. citizens: My vote has to have in mind the good of Mexicans, Canadians, Iraqis, Iranians, Chinese, and Burundians as well.

my faith doesn't make my voting easier

Tags: elections, christian, religion, politics

McCain promised "respectful campaign focused on issues"

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 23:57:33 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: "None of this negative stuff, though," Cindy added last May. "You won't see it come out of our side at all." Wow. What a difference two months can make!

Clip Source: news.yahoo.com

a strategy memo from McCain campaign manager Rick Davis

in March

"It is critical, as we prepare to face off with

their nominee, that we all follow John's lead and run a respectful campaign focused on the issues

Added Cindy McCain in May: "What you're going to see is a great debate.

None of this negative stuff, though. You won't see it come out of our side at all."

What happened to the honorable campaign McCain pledged to run?

McCain's false charge about why Obama canceled a visit to wounded troops in Germany was a low point for the former straight-talker. Wrote Joe Klein of Time Magazine, a previous McCain admirer:

This is the sort of thing you put on the air when:

1. You're desperate.

2. Your Middle East policy has been superseded by events and abandoned by your allies.

3. You apparently have nothing substantive to say

McCain's new ad linking Obama to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears is laughably frivolous, and another indication of how the McCain campaign has turned into amateur hour.

Tags: mccain, elections, politics

McCain trash-talk worries some Repubs

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 00:11:20 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: After attracting followers by calls for respectful tone.

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

McCain Goes Negative, Worrying Some in G.O.P.

SPARKS, Nev. — In recent days Senator John McCain has charged that Senator Barack Obama “would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign,” tarred him as “Dr. No” on energy policy and run advertisements calling him responsible for high gas prices.

The old happy warrior side of Mr. McCain has been eclipsed a bit lately by a much more aggressive, and more negative, Mr. McCain

But some Republicans worry that by going negative so early, and initiating so many of the attacks himself rather than leaving them to others, Mr. McCain risks coming across as angry or partisan in a way that could turn off some independents who have been attracted by his calls for respectful campaigning.

An advertisement criticized Mr. Obama for the high price of gas. “Who can you thank for rising prices at the pump?” an announcer intoned, as chants of “Obama, Obama” were heard.

attacks could also undermine his argument

that he will champion a new brand of politics

Tags: mccain, campaign, elections

"Hard to Overstate McCain Trainwreck"

Sat, 26 Jul 2008 05:47:34 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: His one-plank foreign policy is pre-empted by Maliki

Clip Source: talkingpointsmemo.com

Hard to Overstate McCain Trainwreck

The implications for John McCain are hard to overstate, and Matt Yglesias gets it just right:

[McCain had] spent, several weeks with the main theme of his campaign being, quite literally, to criticize Barack Obama for not having been physically present in Iraq recently. This (of course) got Obama to go to Iraq, thus setting up a dilemma. Either Obama would survey the "progress" in Iraq and change his position, thus making him a flip-flopper, or else he would refuse to change his position, thus making him obstinate and out of touch with reality.
But instead of either of those things happening, Obama went to Iraq and Iraqi leaders said he'd been right all along! That's about as close to "game, set, match" as you get in terms of real world events influencing your political campaign. What's more, given the domestic situation and John McCain's inability to talk about domestic issues persuasively, he can't afford to play for a draw on Iraq.

Tags: mccain, obama, elections, foreign policy

Obama banks a solid, error-free Middle East trip

Sat, 26 Jul 2008 05:57:02 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: it's still a key step since fundamentally this election is about hiring Obama, and overcoming the residual doubts (about his newness, youth, funny name, whatever) that are allowing John McCain even to stay in contention.

Clip Source: talkingpointsmemo.com

After it became clear that Obama's trip through the Middle East was not only error-free but wildly successful (because of Maliki's gambit), there's been a third wave of press chatter and fretting to the effect that Obama's trip may now be too successful

I don't think anyone should be surprised that his numbers aren't spiked. The reverse might even happen

The key was banking a solid trip abroad, an audition for the head of state/commander-in-chief role, that he'll be able to refer back to (mostly implicitly, sometimes explicitly) during the tough weeks ahead in the fall

it's still a key step since fundamentally this election is about hiring Obama, and overcoming the residual doubts (about his newness, youth, funny name, whatever) that are allowing John McCain even to stay in contention.

It's not Obama v. McCain. This is about Obama, with McCain as the alternative.

Tags: elections, mccain, obama, politics

Both parties sell access to politicians at Conventions

Sat, 26 Jul 2008 00:21:13 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Major corporations fund, gain access to political leaders, through loophole in FEC law that allows them to pretend to promote the host city, and thus give without limit. Meeting with top leaders promised in return.

Clip Source: www.truthdig.com

What people don’t know is the extent to which major corporations fund the conventions, pouring tens of millions of dollars into a little-known loophole in the campaign-finance system.

“It’s totally prohibited to give unlimited contributions to political parties. It’s totally prohibited for a corporation or a union to just go right into its treasury and give money to political parties. Yet, under an exemption that was created by the Federal Election Commission, which essentially is made up of representatives of the two major parties, all of this money can be given if it’s given through a host committee under the pretense that it’s merely to promote the convention city.”

In return for this money, the parties

offer access

to the president, the future president, vice president, cabinet officials, senators, congressmen. They promise these companies

that they will be able to not only get close to these people by hosting receptions

but they’ll actually have meetings with them

Tags: campaign, elections

Obama bounces: now 51-36 over McCain

Sat, 21 Jun 2008 00:15:27 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: more trusted in every category; far ahead of where Kerry or Gore were at this point in campaign

Clip Source: www.newsweek.com

Barack’s Bounce

The latest NEWSWEEK Poll shows the Democrat with a 15-point lead over McCain.

A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

In the previous NEWSWEEK Poll, completed in late May

Obama managed no better than a 46 percent tie with McCain

55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way

Obama is running much stronger at this point in the race than his two most recent Democratic predecessors, Sen. John Kerry and Vice President Al Gore

Kerry led Bush by only 6 points

Gore was in a dead heat with Bush

Clip Source: www.newsweek.com

Women voters in the new poll prefer him over McCain by 21 points

Democratic leaners who supported Clinton during the primaries now favor Obama over McCain by 69 percent to 18 percent

Registered independents

backing him by a 48 percent to 36 percent

economy and jobs

54 percent to 29 percent

Tags: elections, politics, obama, mccain

McCain won't be the candidate in November

Mon, 16 Jun 2008 02:35:30 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Interesting theory . . .

Clip Source: www.huffingtonpost.com

McCain will not be the Republican candidate in November.

John McCain will announce that he has decided that he can not accept

The reason will be health releated

The reasons are simple. He can't win

some Democrats that think the Republicans are planning to let McCain lose and 'sit this one out'

But that just isn't how they play

So, who will be the Republican Candidate

Condoleezza Rice (Secretary of State)
Colin Powel (fmr Sec. of State)
Marilyn Musgrave (Colorado Congresswoman)
Mitt Romney (fmr Massachusetts Governor)
Mike Huckabee (fmr Governor of Arkansas)
Charlie Crist (Florida Gov. )
Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor)
Bobby Jindal (Louisiana Gov.)
Mark Sanford: (Governor of South Carolina)
John Thune (Senator from South Dakota)
Dick Lugar (Senator from Indiana)
Chuck Hagel (Senator from Nebraska
MIchael Bloomberg (nyc Mayor)

They'll come on the scene late, with a press corps that is looking for a horse race and a new story

Tags: mccain, elections, politics

Fox apologizes 3rd time; No "whitey" video exists

Fri, 13 Jun 2008 21:24:54 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: Oops, we did it again.

Clip Source: www.guardian.co.uk

Fox forced to apologise to Obama for third time in two weeks

Rupert Murdoch's Fox News television station has been forced to apologise to Barack Obama for the third time in a fortnight after screening a racially tinged caption referring to his wife Michelle as his "baby mama".

Bill Shine, senior vice president of programming at Fox, said

a producer "exercised poor judgment"

The term is slang for a woman who has a baby with a man who is neither her partner nor boyfriend

Obama established a website

debunking a persistent rumour that there is a video showing her speaking from the pulpit of the Trinity church in Chicago in which she allegedly refers to whites as "whitey". He said she had never spoken at Trinity or used such a phrase.

just over a week after

Obama, in a show of affection, lightly touched his fist against Michelle's and the anchorwoman referred to it as a "terrorist fist jab".

Previously, a Fox contributor Liz Trotta had to apologise after making a joke about Obama being assassinated.

Tags: obama, elections

World cheers Obama as nominee

Wed, 04 Jun 2008 22:17:31 GMT

clipped by: masbury
clipper's remarks: "Difference in tone" from Bush years welcome

Clip Source: www.rawstory.com

In Kenya, home to Obama's family on his father's side, the Kenya Times newspaper devoted its front page to the story, under the headline "Obama makes history."

Mexico City, hairdresser Susan Mendoza's eyes lit up

"Bush was for the elite. Obama is of the people," she said.

many Germans "find (Obama's) mixture of Martin Luther King and John F. Kennedy very attractive."

The Times of London

Obama's campaign "has rekindled America's faith in its prodigious powers of reinvention — and the world's admiration for America."

France's Le Monde said

demonstrated that American democracy is not doomed to being confiscated by a narrow political class, financed by lobbies and piloted by communication experts."

A Chinese scholar said that while he did not expect major changes in U.S. foreign policy, an Obama White House would have a very different tone from a Bush one.

Many Asians welcomed the selection of a candidate perceived as more aware of the world outside U.S. borders than Bush

Tags: obama, elections, politics