Clipmarks | ericskiff's 'housing bubble' clips

Home prices drop 15.3% year over year

Tue, 24 Jun 2008 16:41:09 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: I began watching this whole mess play out in about 2004, and was aghast as prices continued to fly out of control. By the end of 2005, the housing fever was breaking and the "housing boom" was being seen for the bubble it was.

Now, to look at the chart of prices even for the so-far relatively insulated New York, there's no mistaking which direction prices are headed. Not only that, it's heading ever faster in that direction.

This "record" of 15.3% year over year drop won't stand very long. I'd be very surprised if we don't break it next month.

Clip Source: money.cnn.com

Prices in 20 cities fall for 21st month in a row. One sign of hope: Pace of decline eased in many areas.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. home prices posted record declines in April, extending a painful losing streak for U.S. home prices.

"In the bubble markets, we continue to see very rapid rates of price declines," said Baker. "If anything, it may be accelerating."

Clip Source: www.flickr.com

Tags: economy, home prices, housing, bubble, chart, money

Housing Price data

Thu, 19 Jun 2008 20:18:52 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: I didn't realize this data was made publicly available. Very interesting to see exactly how the market is performing in various cities.

Clip Source: www2.standardandpoors.com

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Home Price Values

March 2008 (published May 27)
February 2008 (published Apr. 29)
January 2008 (published Mar. 25)
December 2007 (published Feb. 26)
November 2007 (published Jan. 29)
October 2007 (published Dec. 26)
September 2007 (published Nov. 27)

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average and published with a two month lag.

Tags: housing, market, bubble, data, economy

Housing troubles go global

Mon, 14 Apr 2008 23:53:25 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: The boom went around the world, it's no surprise that the bubble is following it. What surprises me is that it seems to catch everyone off-guard.

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

DUBLIN — The collapse of the housing bubble in the United States is mutating into a global phenomenon, with real estate prices swooning from the Irish countryside and the Spanish coast to Baltic seaports and even parts of northern India.

“We know we’re already in negative equity,” said Emma Linnane, a 31-year-old university administrator.

Housing is falling much faster than reported

Fri, 18 May 2007 20:42:30 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: Even as a little as a few months ago, the deniers were still out in full force, saying that everything was going to be just fine. Now even the NAR is owning up to the trouble they've helped cause, and it's probably a lot worse than they're saying.

Clip Source: bigpicture.typepad.com

Real Estate Consultant John Burns has looked at the housing data and reached a rather interesting conclusion: "The housing market has softened much more than is being reported.

Given all the negative news coverage, that's almost hard to believe. But John does a good job dissecting the data, and he is now concerned that both the publicly disseminated New and Existing Home Sales information is misleading. Even worse, he fears, is that policy makers are relying on this bad data to conclude that the housing market correction has not been too severe.

• Closing Data: Sales have actually fallen 22% year-over-year, based on comparing trailing 12 month periods. If you compare year over year sales, the decline is even more severe.

• Builder Data: D.R. Horton and Lennar have reported that orders have declined 27% to 37%, year-over-year -- even as they have dropped prices significantly. These are the nation's two largest homebuilders.

The entire piece, and all of its sourcing, is well worth a read

Tags: real estate, housing bubble, housing, economy, money

Upstate NY feels the foreclosure crunch

Mon, 30 Apr 2007 18:41:28 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: I've talked with many people upstate over the past few years who said "it won't happen here." Risky lending practices are biting both the borrowers and the lenders in Upstate NY hard.

Clip Source: timesunion.com

Home foreclosure filings in the Capital Region surged in the year's first three months

Foreclosures in Albany County jumped 109 percent, while filings in Rensselaer County spiked a staggering 218 percent. Rensselaer County, in fact, had more foreclosures filings in 2007's first three months (54) than it had all of last year (51).

"We're getting more and more calls from people in a panic,"

Attorneys and counselors blamed much of the foreclosure rise on adjustable-rate mortgages that offer low payments at first, then rise sharply and sometimes take homeowners by surprise.

many are couples with combined incomes of over $100,000 who still can't make mortgage payments.

"It's not just the low-end homes that are going into foreclosure," James Saccacio, the company's CEO, said in a statement. "We're seeing a rising percentage of foreclosures with an estimated market value of more than $750,000."

Tags: housing, housing bubble, ny, upstate, foreclosure

Existing home sales fall fastest since '89

Tue, 24 Apr 2007 18:52:13 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: I don't think we're anywhere near the bottom of this drop yet.

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

Sales of previously owned homes suffered their biggest drop in nearly two decades last month, raising concerns that a rebound in the housing market is still far off.

The National Association of Realtors said today that sales of existing homes, which account for about 80 percent of all home sales, fell 8.4 percent in March. That was the steepest decline since 1989.

The realtors’ association report reflected a housing market that is becoming increasingly unfriendly to anyone looking to sell their home. While the number of unsold existing homes for sale fell 1.6 percent in March, to 3,745,000, the time it took to sell a home increased. There was a 7.3-month supply of unsold properties on the market last month, up from a 6.8-month supply in February.

Economists said that if home prices continued to fall, potential buyers would be discouraged from acting while they waited for the bottom of the market to hit.

Tags: housing bubble, economy, housing, nytimes

Another subprime lender bites the dust

Tue, 03 Apr 2007 22:05:41 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: Another in what I'm betting will be a long, long list of subprime (and other) lenders who now have to pay the piper for risky lending practices. The fed had to remind lenders recently to actually verify that borrowers could repay their loans.

Clip Source: www.latimes.com

New Century Financial Corp., once the largest independent maker of mortgages to high-risk borrowers, sank into bankruptcy proceedings today, swamped by demands that it buy back defaulted loans.

The Irvine company also said it would eliminate 3,200 jobs, or about half of its workforce.

Its fall epitomizes the collapse of the sub-prime lending business, which made $1.3 trillion in higher-cost mortgages over the past two years to shaky borrowers. In recent months, forced sales and outright shutdowns of lenders have plagued the industry -- woes that threaten to depress the entire housing market.

"They were big, strong, gigantic -- and arrogant too, cocky," said analyst Matthew Howlett at the investment firm Fox-Pitt, Kelton.

Tags: housing, housing bubble, finance, subprime, lending

Skyrocketing foreclosures and their collateral damage

Thu, 29 Mar 2007 20:04:03 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: To echo what many are now saying - subprime is just the beginning.

Adjustable rate mortgages, no-money-down, and other loans made to folks hoping to "invest" in a home have left many people holding properties that are quickly losing their value - as their mortgage payments continue to grow.

Clip Source: thehousingbubbleblog.com

“Seeing The Tip Of The Iceberg As The Iceberg”

From ABC News in Illinois. “On Aberdeen Street, on Chicago’s South Side, there is a new and unwelcome neighbor as home foreclosures alter the neighborhoods.

“‘Here’s a nice bungalow that’s boarded up,’ says Deborah Moore. ‘So that’s two on this block.’”

Mark Hill is already feeling the impact at his South Side residence

He said he wonders what the value of his house is, after a year in which five homes were boarded up right next to his home.

“Josh Rosner, managing director at investment research firm Graham Fisher & Co., says the growing numbers of foreclosures outside the subprime market is just the start. ‘To define the problem as a subprime problem is short-sighted,’ Rosner said. ‘It’s really seeing the tip of the iceberg as the iceberg.’”

Tags: housing bubble, housing, finance, business, home, home prices, foreclosure, foreclosures

Home values in San Diego - zillow

Thu, 29 Mar 2007 19:56:08 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: Graphs like this are actually surprising to me., If you believe this graph (which shows data on one particular house, as well as from all of San Diego), the decline even in this overheated market has been fairly linear.

Of course, losing $50k on your house a year is not exactly comforting, but the measured decline is nothing compared to the almost exponential growth from 2004-2006

Clip Source: www.zillow.com

Historical Value Trends display options

Historical Value Trends Show as: % $ % annualized

Past:	This home	92173	San Diego	San Diego	CA	US
30 days	1.3%	1.5%	0.3%	0.0%	-0.5%	-0.5%
1 year	1.7%	-6.3%	-6.7%	-5.7%	-2.2%	-0.9%
5 years	161.1%	143.3%	114.6%	115.5%	145.1%	70.3%
10 years	334.3%	311.8%	251.9%	209.1%	253.4%	122.6%
Since last sale (04/29/2004)	66.2%	55.1%	42.6%	50.6%	64.8%	39.1%
30 days	$7,472	$6,583	$1,538	$96	-$2,469	-$1,209
1 year	$10,253	-$30,015	-$35,753	-$30,763	-$11,821	-$2,259
5 years	$370,845	$262,400	$267,312	$275,228	$304,630	$105,014
10 years	$462,641	$337,305	$358,349	$347,305	$368,967	$140,089
Since last sale (04/29/2004)	$239,345	$158,352	$149,602	$172,422	$202,312	$71,474
30 days	16.4%	19.9%	3.8%	0.2%	-5.7%	-5.6%
1 year	1.7%	-6.3%	-6.7%	-5.7%	-2.2%	-0.9%
5 years	21.2%	19.5%	16.5%	16.6%	19.6%	11.2%
10 years	15.8%	15.2%	13.4%	11.9%	13.5%	8.3%
Since last sale (04/29/2004)	19.0%	16.3%	13.0%	15.1%	18.7%	12.0%

Tags: housing, housing bubble, finance, zillow, homes, data, economy

What Statistics on Home Sales Aren't Saying

Wed, 06 Dec 2006 22:14:08 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: The hard truth is coming to light. The real estate bubble popped, and even the best spinmeisters in real estate are having trouble making this look good.

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

Down in Naples, Fla., a fast-growing city on the Gulf of Mexico, there was an auction of houses about a month ago.

Based on the official housing statistics, you might have guessed that the sellers would have made out just fine, despite all the talk of a real estate slump. According to one widely followed real estate index — tabulated by the government agency that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — the average house in Naples sold for 20 percent more this summer than it would have a year earlier.

But that wasn’t what happened at the auction. In fact, if you were at the beach club that Saturday, you could have been excused for thinking that the real estate market was crashing.

One three-bedroom ranch house with a pool sold for $671,000. In 2005, the same house sold for $809,000. Another house, just steps from Naples Bay, sold for $880,000 at the auction., compared with $1.35 million a year earlier. On average, the houses that changed hands at the auction had fallen about 25 percent in value since 2005, according to Thomas Lawler, a real estate consultant who analyzed the auction’s results.

Tags: nytimes, housing, bubble, market, crash, economics, economy, housingbubble, florida, realestate, real estate

Housing flippers are upside-down

Mon, 30 Oct 2006 23:00:28 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: As the market turns sour, many folks are left with mortgages for more than what they can sell their house for... if they can sell it at all! This blog tracks houses on the market and how much the flippers would lose at their current asking price.

Ouch!

Clip Source: flippersintrouble.blogspot.com

Welcome to the Flippers in Trouble Gallery. I'll update this blog once a week or so with the latest Flippers In Trouble listings.

Total Loss: $158,500

Percent Loss: 30.6%

Asking Price: $360,000
Bedrooms:3 Baths: 1 Sq. feet:1262

Previous Sales:

Sold on 2005-12-02 for $518,500

MLS# 60112107 Google Maps
Assessed Value Property Tax Bill

Total Loss: $140,500

Percent Loss: 31.2%

Asking Price: $310,000
Bedrooms:3 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:1986

Asking Price Changes:
Down 22.3% from $399,000 On 09-09
Down 13.9% from $360,000 On 10-14
Down 11.4% from $350,000 On 10-21

Previous Sales:
Sold on 2004-05-21 for $40,000
Sold on 2005-02-16 for $351,000

Sold on 2006-03-10 for $450,500

MLS# 60114775 Google Maps
Assessed Value Property Tax Bill

Total Loss: $131,000

Percent Loss: 14.4%

Asking Price: $779,000
Bedrooms:3 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:3495

Asking Price Changes:
Down 20.1% from $975,000 On 10-07
Down 16.1% from $929,000 On 10-14

Previous Sales:
Sold on 2005-06-21 for $692,000

Sold on 2005-08-11 for $910,000

MLS# 60112470 Google Maps
Assessed Value Property Tax Bill

Tags: housing, housingbubble, economy, bubble, crash, flipper, investing

Is your house bubblicious?

Wed, 18 Oct 2006 04:37:13 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: It took a while for reality to sink in, but things are happening fast now. The question on everyone's mind seems to be "how bad will it be?"

Clip Source: www.businessweek.com

Where Housing Prices Will Fall the Most

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.
—Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics

Slide Show >>

Almost no one is arguing about whether the U.S. housing market is in decline these days. Prices are skidding across the country. Homebuilding stocks like Lennar (LEN), DR Horton (DHI), and Pulte Homes (PHM) have gotten crunched.

REASONS FOR PESSIMISM. Zandi's predictions for specific markets are sobering. The worst hit metro areas, he asserts, will be Cape Coral, Fla., with an 18.6% decline in housing prices; Reno, Nev., with a 17.2% drop; and Stockton, Calif., with a 15.7% fall. To conduct his analysis, Zandi looked at the supply and demand of housing, changes in mortgage rates, demographic trends, the job market, and new housing (see BusinessWeek.com, 9/19/06, "Can Wall Street Withstand Weak Housing?").

ANYBODY'S GUESS. But in Boston, there's a sharp contrast. Zandi thinks that the worst is over. He estimates that prices declined 2.2% in the second and third quarter of 2006, and that should be the end of the meaningful declines. "Boston's jobs market is coming back, and the city didn't see much froth anyway," says Zandi. But the CME futures markets expect Boston to continue to drop, at least 7% by August, 2007. Similarly, Zandi expects New York to drop 3.5% through the fourth quarter of 2008, while the futures traders are betting that New York's real estate will drop a sharper 6% by next year.

Tags: housing, housing bubble, real estate, realty, economy, economics

McMansion-maker Kara folds as housing market turns sour

Tue, 10 Oct 2006 18:56:21 GMT

clipped by: ericskiff
clipper's remarks: I've been watching this bubble for a long time, and it's frightening to see how blind these builders were going into the downturn. I've heard horror stories of buyers with $150,000 deposits that are vanishing before their eyes as Kara files chapter 11. Everyone owed money by Kara from contractors to banks and investors is similarly screwed.

Kara is the first, but will certainly not be the last as the housing bubble backlash hits.

Clip Source: www.thehousingbubbleblog.com

‘Awkward Questions’ As The Housing Bubble Bursts

From Bloomberg. “Kara Homes Inc., the New Jersey builder known for so-called McMansions, filed for bankruptcy after $250,000 discounts failed to lure buyers. The closely held East Brunswick, New Jersey-based company sought Chapter 11 protection in U.S. Bankruptcy Court, saying it owes $296.84 million to lumber, concrete, electrical, plumbing and woodwork companies while holding $350.18 million in assets, primarily unsold houses and land.”

The Wall Street Journal. “As the housing sector cools, the mortgage market faces an awkward question: Who takes the hit when loans go bad?”

“‘There could be many similar filings in markets glutted with single family homes,’ said Gerard Cassidy, managing director of bank equity research for RBC Capital Markets. ‘Kara is already at the table. We expect more people to come to dinner, the question is, how many more?’”

“U.S. housing demand is flagging after five record years, swelling the inventory of unsold homes. Almost half the people who sign contracts with builders are canceling before the house is finished, forcing companies to sacrifice profit margins by offering freebies to attract new buyers, according to James Hughes of Rutgers University.”

Tags: housing, housing bubble, bankruptcy, kara, mcmansion, economy, money, politics