Clipmarks | Joshua Zumbrun's clips

Odds of conception

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 16:45:42 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: I saw this posted on Slate, and just want to make a comment about the math.

The "extraordinary odds" of a 43-year-old conceiving naturally are only 1-3 (or maybe 5)% in a given month, says the article.

Question: what are the odds in two months? This is just a basic probability question. What are the odds of not getting pregnant two months in a row? Say there's a 5 percent chance of getting pregnant, there's a 95% chance of not getting pregnant. The odds of not getting pregnant for two months are thus (.95*.95=.9025). So there's a .05 chance in one month but a .0975 chance of pregnancy in two months. For three months it's (.95*.95*.95=.857). For a three month affair, that'd be a 14.43% chance of pregnancy. Still unlikely but not really extraordinary.

Say an affair lasts for 16 months, from February 2006 to May 2007 perhaps. At 3 percent per month, the math works to a 41% chance of getting pregnant. At 5% it's a 59% chance of pregnancy.

"Extraordinary odds"? The math says not

Clip Source: www.doublex.com

Rielle Hunter Beat the Odds

By Sarah Elizabeth Richards

We know that former presidential candidate John Edwards may announce that he fathered Rielle Hunter’s baby. But how did she become pregnant in the first place? No, not the obvious—“Oops! I forgot the birth control!” How did Hunter beat the extraordinary odds, given her age, to conceive the child naturally?

Tags: conception, hunter, unlikely, sarah elizabeth richards, slate

9 Questions for Ben Bernanke

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:07:10 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: This is very sharp.

A lot of commentary on the Fed quickly devolves into conspiracy theory and pumping gold portfolios, and so it's refreshing to see some substantive ideas.

Clip Source: www.slate.com

Nine Questions for Ben Bernanke

By Eliot Spitzer

Yet as we appear headed to reinforce the Fed as the center of all economic power, there are enormous questions that remain, and Bernanke needs to answer them at his upcoming Senate confirmation hearings. The scope of authority now claimed—and sought—by the Fed makes these confirmation hearings more important than any I can recall. The performance of the Fed over the past several business cycles gives me enormous pause. We should enter these hearings with an agnostic view about Bernanke's suitability and an understanding that he carries the burden of proving his case. This may be the one genuine opportunity to plumb the depths of lessons learned—or missed—about the economic catastrophe.

Here are nine questions Bernanke needs to answer before he wins another term.

Tags: spitzer, bernanke, federal reserve, questions

In Denial About Financial Reform

Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:11:34 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: Also see Dan Indiviglio over at The Atlantic: http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/09/why_is_washington_ignoring_the_real_causes_of_the_crisis.php

The danger of putting a lawyer in charge of something like this is, in my opinion, best exemplified by Neil Barofsky, the attorney they put in front of TARP oversight.

Barofsky has used his pulpit to put out some really meaningless and misleading numbers. We need real information from these guys, not noisy innumerate numbers.

See: http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/27/bailout-bad-math-business-washington-barofsky.html

Clip Source: correspondents.theatlantic.com

Financial Regulatory Reform: The Politics of Denial

Richard A. Posner

Two bad recent signs concerning the movement to reform financial regulation: The first is the first public meeting of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, created by Congress four months ago to investigate the causes of the financial crisis and report back at the end of next year. The commission has gotten off to a slow start, and even though only one member of the commission could (I believe, though I am not certain, and welcome correction) be described as a professional economist (Keith Hennessey), and even he is more a political operative, the commission has appointed as its executive director not an economist but a lawyer--a prosecutor in the California attorney general's office. And at its first public meeting members of the commission made statements which suggest that they will divide along the predictable political lines (six of the members are Democrats, four Republicans).

Tags: posner, financial reform, denial, inquiry commission, wrong issues

How to write the sequel to the Da Vinci Code

Thu, 17 Sep 2009 21:54:47 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: This is fantastic.

Clip Source: www.slate.com

The Dan Brown Sequel Generator

By Chris Wilson

At the stroke of midnight on Tuesday, renowned author Dan Brown will publish The Lost Symbol, his fifth novel and the third to star Harvard symbologist Robert Langdon. Early reviews report that Brown's new thriller has all the elements that made The Da Vinci Code a phenomenal success: intricate conspiracies, sexy sidekicks, and grotesque villains intent on stopping our erudite yet brave hero at all costs. Previous Langdon adventures have taken him to Rome, Paris, and London in pursuit of the Vatican's mysteries. The new novel takes place Washington, D.C., and delves into the mysteries of the Freemasons.

Tags: dan brown, da vinci code, sequel, generator, formulaic, lame, bad writing

Who Ruined the Economy: Bankers or Economists?

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 23:45:34 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: There've been a lot of good economists who Gross ignores, but he does acknowledge he's painting with a broad bush.

Clip Source: www.slate.com

Bankers vs. Economists

By Daniel Gross

Which profession bears more blame for the global credit meltdown and its ensuing gazillion-dollar bailouts: bankers or economists?

This isn't a trick question.

So far, bankers have been getting most of the opprobrium. Yes, there are a few solid bankers who didn't destroy their firms. But pretty much all the prominent bankers failed. And their failures are writ large on the pages of the Wall Street Journal every day. They've been hauled before Congress, been deposed and fired, lost vast fortunes, and been the targets of populist rage. By common consensus, bankers (and by this I mean the term as it's used in the tri-state metro area: to describe anybody who works at a relatively high level in the financial services industry) blew it.

Tags: who to blame, bankers, economists, regulators, yuppie home flippers

The Case for Privatizing Pirate Hunting

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 21:55:55 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: Seems like we could use Letters of Marque for a lot more purposes than just hunting pirates too.

Clip Source: www.politico.com

Ron Paul's plan to fend off pirates

By ERIKA LOVLEY | 4/15/09 4:16 AM EDT

A little-known congressional power could help the federal government keep the Somali pirates in check — and possibly do it for a discount price.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and a growing number of national security experts are calling on Congress to consider using letters of marque and reprisal, a power written into the Constitution that allows the United States to hire private citizens to keep international waters safe.

Used heavily during the Revolution and the War of 1812, letters of marque serve as official warrants from the government, allowing privateers to seize or destroy enemies, their loot and their vessels in exchange for bounty money.

Tags: letters of marque, pirate, hunting, diy, ron paul, navy seals

Overweight Airline Passengers To Be Charged Double

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 16:15:04 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: Yet another reason to go on a diet before your honeymoon.

Clip Source: cbs2chicago.com

United To Charge Heavier Passengers Twice To Fly

CHICAGO (CBS) ―

If "beefy" or "curvy" describes you, here is a word of warning: United Airlines will begin aggressively enforcing a new policy that allows it to charge heavier passengers twice to fly.

WBBM Newsradio 780 has learned that Chicago-based United has instructed its customer service representatives at O'Hare International Airport ticket counters and gates to be extra vigilant beginning Wednesday for passengers they deem to be overweight. Those unable to comfortably fasten a safety belt with one extension or sit comfortably with armrests down will be denied boarding unless they purchase an extra seat, even if they can be placed elsewhere in the aircraft next to an empty seat.

Tags: overweight, airline, passengers, two seats, united, ticket, obesity

"Girls Gone Wild" interrupt Vatican

Tue, 14 Apr 2009 16:02:19 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: Another example of Comcast's excellent customer service.

Clip Source: www.philly.com

'Girls Gone Wild' interrupts Good Friday service

Sweet Jesus!

That just might have been the reaction of a Bucks County woman at about 2 a.m. Friday when her regularly scheduled Comcast program - Good Friday Mass at the Vatican - abruptly changed to a 30-second "Girls Gone Wild" ad.

Tags: comcast, snafu, girls gone wild, vatican, good friday, blooper, easter

How Kellogg Won the Cereal Wars of the Great Depression

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 19:38:02 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun

Clip Source: www.newyorker.com

Hanging Tough

by James Surowiecki

In the late nineteen-twenties, two companies—Kellogg and Post—dominated the market for packaged cereal. It was still a relatively new market: ready-to-eat cereal had been around for decades, but Americans didn’t see it as a real alternative to oatmeal or cream of wheat until the twenties. So, when the Depression hit, no one knew what would happen to consumer demand. Post did the predictable thing: it reined in expenses and cut back on advertising. But Kellogg doubled its ad budget, moved aggressively into radio advertising, and heavily pushed its new cereal, Rice Krispies. (Snap, Crackle, and Pop first appeared in the thirties.) By 1933, even as the economy cratered, Kellogg’s profits had risen almost thirty per cent and it had become what it remains today: the industry’s dominant player.

Tags: cereal, recession, depression, management, investment, bargains

Exodus Out of the Big Banks

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 15:34:35 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: There's an intriguing idea here that it's good for the talent to disperse to smaller institutions. That it will be a sort of Darwinian process that whittles big banks down until they're no longer too big to fail. And it creates a more diverse Wall Street in the process.

Well, really? It seems to me that's no longer true if a handful of the big banks (say Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan) are able to pay off their TARP funds early.

Shrinking Citi and Bank of America to beef up Aladdin Capital and Broadpoint may be dandy and help the too-big-to-fail problem. But aren't we just as likely to be shrinking Citi and Bank of America to enlarge Goldman and JPMorgan?

I'm not suggesting anything in particular other than that I'm not sure this talent reallocation really does anything material to the bank size issue.

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

Crisis Altering Wall St. As Stars Begin to Scatter

By GRAHAM BOWLEY and LOUISE STORY

The turning point for Stephan Jung came in February, around the time bonus checks were slashed. A veteran of UBS, one of many banks tarnished by the financial crisis, Mr. Jung realized that the old Wall Street would not be bouncing back any time soon. It was time to head for the new.

“After 10 years, I did not see a future for myself,” said Mr. Jung, 42, who quit to parlay his sales expertise into a career at Aladdin Capital, a small but rising investment firm run by others who had also left some of the most venerable names in finance.

Tags: aladdin, bank, compensation, salary

Ch-ch-ch-Chia Obama!

Thu, 09 Apr 2009 20:44:38 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun

Clip Source: www2.tbo.com

Chia Obama pulled from Tampa's Walgreens

By RAY REYES | The Tampa Tribune

TAMPA - A disclaimer on the box says full growth takes between 1-2 weeks, but the shelf life for "Chia Obama" has expired.

Walgreens has ordered stores in Tampa and Chicago to remove the product, saying the ceramic planter molded in the apparent likeness of the president was not appropriate for sale.

Tags: chia, obama, walgreens

Dumped for a Blackberry

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 03:51:24 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: Okay, but I think it's the iPhone rather than the BlackBerry that's the truly insidious threat.

Clip Source: www.washingtonpost.com

Text Is Cheap

By Monica Hesse

h, no! He's fading fast! Eyes drifting downward. Responses becoming monosyllabic. No! No, buddy! Pay attention! Did you hear the one about the foreclosed psychic? She was re-possessed. Ha, ha! Just stop that incessant thumb-typing, and give this exchange a chance!

Tags: blackberry, iphone, distraction, trying to have a society here, pda, etiquette

Survivor Employee Edition

Tue, 07 Apr 2009 22:53:26 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: What about the poor employees who ended voted off the island on national TV??

Clip Source: voices.washingtonpost.com

Sacked Employees To Provide Fox with Ratings -- Everyone Wins!

Coming to Fox: a reality series in which actual companies that are struggling to stay afloat in this lousy economy agree -- presumably in exchange for money -- to let their staffs decide which among them is going to get pink-slipped to save money.

To populate its new "Lord of the Flies"-esque series, "Someone's Gotta Go," Fox has lined up actual companies -- smaller, Dunder Mifflin-esque-sized (15-20 employees) ones -- having financial difficulties.

Tags: survivor, someone's gotta go, reality tv, recession, fox, pink slip, layoffs

'Go Fish' for Capitalists

Tue, 07 Apr 2009 20:05:02 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: Could this be even bigger than Settlers of Catan?

Clip Source: economix.blogs.nytimes.com

‘Go Fish’ for Capitalists

By Julia Werdigier

[via Apture]

Inspired by the credit crisis, a new satirical card game in Britain invites players to take the role of banking executives, secretly embezzle their banks’ assets, pay themselves gigantic bonuses and use government bailouts to secure as much personal wealth as possible while ensuring their customers’ trust.

Tags: go fish, card games, financial crisis, bailout, games

Paulson's Son Can't Buy Soccer Bliss

Tue, 07 Apr 2009 16:54:12 GMT

clipped by: Joshua Zumbrun
clipper's remarks: Major league soccer?

Clip Source: www.bloomberg.com

Henry Paulson’s Son Finds Dad’s Money Won’t Buy Soccer Bliss

By Anthony Effinger

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and multimillionaire Henry Paulson spent much of his last year in office trying to save global capitalism.

His son, Merritt, spent much of the last year trying to bring Major League Soccer to Portland, Oregon. His job seemed much easier -- until last month.

Tags: henry, paulson, merritt, treasury, where is he now, portland, major league soccer, recession