Clipmarks | JICWyllie's 'i-supply' clips

Booming China Suddenly Worries That a Slowdown Is Taking Hold

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:57:40 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie
clipper's remarks: If you think the US is overbuilt, wait until China's new urban property market begins to plunge in value ... just like Japan, but probably worse because there is even more corruption.

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

Many Chinese have been expecting a post-Olympics economic slowdown, but it has already started and the Games have not even begun.

Chinese factories reported a plunge in new orders last month. Exports are barely growing. The real estate market is weakening, with apartment prices sinking in southeastern China, the region hardest hit by economic troubles.

China’s slowing growth is one reason that gasoline prices have fallen in the United States, for example. Similarly, world prices for metals like copper, tin, zinc and aluminum have tumbled in the last several weeks, as voracious Chinese factories have closed, or cut back their consumption.

Economists expect growth to slip from its recent pace of 11 percent or more annually to as low as 9 or 9.5 percent over the coming year.

9 percent growth will make it much harder to supply jobs to the millions of Chinese moving to cities from rural areas in search of work.

Tags: economy, business, growth, i-decrease

Oil falls to three-month low

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:47:42 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.guardian.co.uk

Oil slid to $118 a barrel as investors predicted that demand from the US and Europe was waning, at a time when some oil-producing countries have increased supply.

supply from Opec, the group of major oil-producing nations, rose for a third consecutive month in July driven by increased output from the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia. Opec's members produce two in every five barrels of oil.

Angus McPhail from investment firm Alliance Trust said prices could fall to about £100 a barrel - still high by the standards set in recent years - if economic data remains weak.

Changes in the oil prices often takes six to eight weeks to hit the petrol pump.

Tags: energy, oil, i-supply, i-increase. i-price, i-decrease

Don't make the consumer pay for these inflated fuel prices

Sun, 03 Aug 2008 15:01:23 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.guardian.co.uk

If you want to criticise the free market, look at the design of Britain's energy markets, particularly the wholesale market for gas where the big companies buy and sell to one another. As gas prices shadow every movement in oil price, other European countries have carefully built a substantial infrastructure to hold sufficient reserve stocks of gas in their systems to smooth price changes. Not in free-market Britain.

Amazingly, as North Sea gas production declines and we become more dependent on imports, we have capacity to store only 13 days' worth of gas. Germany has 99 and France 122.

So as wholesale gas prices have risen, the British system has offered no buffer to smooth the impact.

The so-called London loophole, created by the Labour government, excuses the London oil market from independent and transparent oversight.

Speculation is part of the oil price rise, and most of it is rooted in out-of-control London.

Tags: energy, natural gas, i-supply, i-prices, i-policy, i-failure

Shipping Costs Start to Crimp Globalization

Sun, 03 Aug 2008 13:23:33 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

Cheap oil, the lubricant of quick, inexpensive transportation links across the world, may not return anytime soon, upsetting the logic of diffuse global supply chains that treat geography as a footnote in the pursuit of lower wages.

Rising concern about global warming, the reaction against lost jobs in rich countries, worries about food safety and security, and the collapse of world trade talks in Geneva last week also signal that political and environmental concerns may make the calculus of globalization far more complex.

companies looking to keep prices low will have to move some production closer to consumers. Globe-spanning supply chains

make less sense today than they did a few years ago.

Decisions like those suggest that what some economists call a neighborhood effect — putting factories closer to components suppliers and to consumers, to reduce transportation costs — could grow in importance if oil remains expensive.

Tags: economy, trade, i-globalisation, i-decrease, transport, i-prices, i-increase

Suicide Spreads as One Solution to the Debt Crisis

Tue, 29 Jul 2008 12:24:54 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.alternet.org

Suicide is becoming an increasingly popular response to debt. James Scurlock's brilliant documentary, Maxed Out, features the families of two college students who killed themselves after being overwhelmed by credit card debt.

India may be the trend-setter here, with an estimated 150,000 debt-ridden farmers succumbing to suicide since 1997. With guns in short supply in rural India, the desperate farmers have taken to drinking the pesticides meant for their crops.

The alternative is to value yourself more than any amount of money and turn the guns, metaphorically speaking, in the other direction.

I know it's so 1930s, but may I suggest a march on Wall Street?

Tags: economy, consumers, i-debt, i-crisis, i-suicide

Hydropower, Rail Shortages Will Likely Hit Coal Exports

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:08:33 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.moscowtimes.ru

Russia's hydropower levels have fallen to the lowest in 16 years and coal-fired plants are struggling to take up the slack because a chronic rail wagon shortage is making it hard for them to get enough fuel, the country's coal exporters said Monday.

For years there have not been enough rail wagons available to move all the commodities competing for space, but the shortage of hydropower would make the situation worse this year, they said. "It is much worse this year, and it is earlier than usual this year because of the hydropower situation," said one of the largest coal exporters and suppliers of domestic coal.

"If nothing changes, we think there could be four power stations shut down during the winter in the west of Russia,

The government is likely to displace some coal exports from the rail network in order to prioritize the movement of domestic coal, the exporters said.

Tags: energy, coal, i-supply, i-decrease, i-shortages

China Shuts More Coal Power Plants; Warns on Shortage

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 16:11:12 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.bloomberg.com

China, the world's second-biggest energy consumer, shut 2.5 percent of its coal-fired power plants, prompting local governments to limit electricity consumption and issue warnings on possible blackouts.

Insufficient coal supplies forced the closure of 58 power- generating units in central and northern China as of July 6

The power problem is beginning to look deep-seated and structural and unlikely to be resolved rapidly

Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the nation's biggest producer of the metal, halted output at a venture in the province because of power shortages. That pushed the price of aluminum to a record yesterday.

Tags: energy, coal, i-supply, i-decrease

Oil soars to new high above $146

Thu, 03 Jul 2008 11:11:18 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.ft.com

Crude oil prices jumped above $146 a barrel on Thursday boosted by a drop in US stockpiles and concerns about the medium-term supply and demand balance. The rise brings the oil price surge since January to 55 per cent.

Henry Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, said on Thursday that the “predominant factor” behind the rise in oil prices was supply and demand.

“[It] is the fact that global production and capacity has not increased appreciably over the last 10 years and the demand has continued to grow and inventories are at low levels,” Mr Paulson said in London.

The concerns about supply and demand imbalances were exacerbated earlier this week when the International Energy Agency, the western countries’ oil watchdog, said that non-Opec supply will barely growth to 2013.

The weakness of the US dollar, at its lowest level in two months against the euro, also contributed to the price rise

Tags: energy, oil, i-price, i-increase, i-record

Oil Demand Will Grow, Despite Prices, Report Says

Wed, 02 Jul 2008 12:24:04 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

World demand for oil should continue to climb, despite the doubling of oil prices and weakening economic growth, according to a report released Tuesday by the International Energy Agency.

the small decline in oil demand in the industrialized countries will be more than offset by an estimated increase in demand of 3.7 percent a year from 2008 to 2013

“The report is only further confirmation of the inability of global supply to catch up with rising demands,” said Chris Ruppel, an energy analyst at Execution, an institutional brokerage firm. “After five years of record increases in oil prices, producers are still unable to sufficiently expand output. It means we are in for rough times.”

“Blaming speculation is an easy solution which avoids taking the necessary steps to improve supply-side access and investment or to implement measures to improve energy efficiency,” the report said.

Tags: energy, oil, i-demand, i-supply, i-increase, i-forecast

Birds Migrate Earlier, But Some May Be Left Behind As The Climate Warms Rapidly

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 18:09:21 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.terradaily.com

Many birds are arriving earlier each spring as temperatures warm along the East Coast of the United States. However, the farther those birds journey, the less likely they are to keep pace with the rapidly changing climate.

Other researchers have already noted that some long-distance migrant birds returning from African wintering areas to breed in Europe are now mistimed with their insect food supply. The inability of some birds to adapt to rapid climate change may be an important factor in some of the declines among songbird populations that have been documented in recent years.

Tags: environment, birds, i-extinction, i-risks, i-increase

Fuel tax reduction: choosing the maximum pain route

Wed, 28 May 2008 16:04:14 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.theoildrum.com

The European Union should consider capping sales taxes on fuel products if oil prices rise further, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Tuesday, seeking to allay consumer fears about spiralling costs.

Ah, lower taxes on oil are sure going to help solve that "growing demand, stagnant supply" situation, right?

I must admit that I am even more amazed at our politicians now that they are making the right descriptions of the energy market (saying, quite correctly, that oil is no longer cheap nor plentiful) - their lack of action when that diagnosis was absent was at least consistent, if irresponsible. Now, the contradictions are just stunning.

Given that voters seem to only care about how much their next gas tank will cost, and can't or won't grasp the consequences of short term fixes, it may be rational for politicians to pander to such denial.

One way or another, it's not going to last. But we're choosing the maximum pain route.

Tags: energy, oil, i-policy, i-risks, i-peak oil, i-denial

Race to nuclear power generation

Wed, 28 May 2008 12:32:10 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie
clipper's remarks: The costs of decommissioning nuclear power plants is proving to be orders of magnitude greater than anticipated. Who will pay them? Will our children and their children have the money? See yesterday's clip: Nuclear clean-up costs 'to soar'
http://clipmarks.com/clipmark/D62BF5D1-BB89-470A-B2CF-19C6F5ED6749/

Clip Source: www.energy-daily.com

Central Europe fuels demands for European nuclear revival

Central European countries are fuelling a nuclear power revival as they face soaring energy prices, closure of old Soviet reactors, fears over meeting EU climate change targets and dependency on Russian gas.

Clip Source: www.energy-daily.com

Nuclear energy best option for Gulf states: experts

Nuclear power rather than renewable sources like the wind or sun are the best option for oil-rich Gulf Arab states to meet growing energy demands, especially if produced collectively,

Clip Source: www.energy-daily.com

Nuclear power the answer to high oil costs: French PM

The world's second producer of nuclear energy after the United States, France is vying to lead a worldwide revival of the industry, fuelled by worries about global warming and rising energy prices.

Sarkozy has energetically promoted France's leadership in the field, signing civilian nuclear cooperation accords with Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and the United Arab Emirates.

Tags: energy, nuclear, i-policy, i-supply, i-increase

Oil Reserves: Where Ghawar goes, the rest of OPEC follows

Tue, 27 May 2008 15:48:08 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.netvibes.com

Claimed OPEC reserves are overstated by approximately 340 Gb. They are, with a high degree of certainty, rather much closer to 570 billion barrels than the 904 claimed. Combining this with the Oil and Gas Journal's non-OPEC conventional oil reserves estimate of 280 Gb⁹, yields a global reserves base of 846 billion barrels, well short of the 1140 level assumed.

The implications of this circa 340 billion barrel reserves shortfall for global forecasts of petroleum supply cannot be overstated. With cumulative consumption at 1180 Gb¹⁰ and reserves of less than 850 Gb, we have consumed well over half our conventional oil reserves base.

With those kinds of numbers, peak oil cannot be far away, and exploration and 'reserves growth' will not be enough to get us out of the woods.

Tags: energy, oil, i-reserves, i-depletion

After 'peak oil', world now faces 'peak water'

Tue, 27 May 2008 15:32:21 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.euractiv.com

The challenge posed by current high oil prices is nothing compared to what lies ahead amid dwindling supply and growing demand for a far more basic commodity - water, warns a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) professor.

Slaughter argues that as awareness of the vulnerability of water systems increases together with concerns over climate change, "public utilities are discussing how to restructure water rates to better reflect true costs without causing public harm". Meanwhile, the price of water is increasing.

The solution to the looming water crisis could, according to her, be provided by innovative companies who seize water as "the next opportunity for smart innovation". She cited a particular ultraviolet treatment technology already being used to deliver clean drinking water to various communities.

As for the EU, water crept up the bloc's political agenda last summer following the serious drought that swept across Europe.

Tags: environment, fresh water, i-supply, i-decrease, i-forecast

Conversion Problem Derail Alternative Energy?

Tue, 27 May 2008 15:20:38 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.scitizen.com

Many alternative energy advocates claim that it is possible to replace our fossil fuel economy with one that runs on a combination of nuclear power and renewable energy from the wind, the sun and the farm. Credible scientific estimates suggest that they are right. However, those advocates often fail to consider one critical issue that could derail their plans, the rate-of-conversion problem. How long will it take to make such a transition? And, more importantly, how long do we have?

The first thing to understand is that the fossil fuel alternatives which we normally think about--nuclear power, wind, solar, and biomass--are all heavily dependent on fossil fuels for their production.

Surely, nuclear power isn't very fossil fuel intensive. In fact, it requires large amounts of fossil fuel to mine and refine the necessary uranium fuel, to build the reactor and its containment and other associated buildings, and to service the plant while it is in operation.

Tags: energy, renewables, nuclear, i-supply, i-decrease, i-forecast