Clipmarks | JICWyllie's 'i-risks' clips

Surge of bond deals lifts credit risk premiums

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:27:30 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Multi-billion dollar debt sales from AIG and Citigroup led a sudden wave of US bond deals last week that lifted corporate credit risk premiums across the market – in contrast to an improving picture in Europe.

However, these market moves mask a rapidly worsening picture for European economies and credit markets versus the US, which some analysts see as a bigger trend that will gather pace.

Stephen Dulake, European credit strategist at JPMorgan Chase, calls this change “macro risk reversal”.

“Europe is becoming increasingly more risky than the US,” he said.

“Negative economic surprises in our in-house index are at a four-year high in Europe and we’re seeing accelerating profit warnings across industrial sectors.”

the worse outlook for Europe does not mean an entirely positive outlook for the US. “Many risks still hang over the credit markets, including a slow but deliberate deterioration in fundamentals,” say analysts at Lehman Brothers.

Tags: economy, financial markets, i-losses, i-risks, i-increase

More Acidic Ocean Could Spell Trouble For Marine Life's Earliest Stages

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 17:09:06 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.terradaily.com

More Acidic Ocean Could Spell Trouble For Marine Life's Earliest Stages

Increasingly acidic conditions in the ocean-brought on as a direct result of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere-could spell trouble for the earliest stages of marine life,

Levels of acidification predicted by the year 2100 could slash the fertilization success of sea urchins by an estimated 25 percent, the study shows.

"If other marine species respond similarly-and there's no evidence yet that they don't-then we're in trouble," said Jon Havenhand of the University of Gothenburg in Sweden.

we observed a 25 percent reduction in fertilization success at reduced pH, which is equivalent to a 25 percent reduction in the spawning stock of the species. Apply equivalent changes to other commercially or ecologically important species, such as lobsters, crabs, abalone, clams, mussels, or even fish, and the consequences would be far-reaching. It could be enough to "tip" an ecosystem from one state to another."

Tags: environment, oceans, i-acidifaction, i-consequences, i-extinction, i-risks

Climate Change And Species Distributions

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 17:06:28 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.terradaily.com

Scientists have long pointed to physical changes in the Earth and its atmosphere, such as melting polar ice caps, sea level rise and violent storms, as indicators of global climate change. But changes in climate can wreak havoc in more subtle ways, such as the loss of habitat for plant and animal species.

Climate change can result in animals and plants migrating northward to escape the heat, but in many cases suitable habitat becomes scarce or unavailable farther away from the species' natural range.

large variability in climate causes an increasing number and intensity of fires and droughts, as well as extreme weather events that could kill long-lived trees and allow short-lived grasses to colonize the leftover space.

His models predict that year-to-year variability in precipitation and temperature reduces the Earth's total vegetation cover, expanding its relative grass cover and diminishing its relative tree cover.

Tags: environment, species, i-climate change, i-migration, i-risks, i-increase

Housing Lenders Fear Bigger Wave of Loan Defaults

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 12:23:04 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building.

Reports last week showed another drop in home prices, slower-than-expected economic growth and a huge loss at General Motors. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate in July climbed to a four-year high.

Homeowners with good credit are falling behind on their payments in growing numbers,

The percentage of mortgages in arrears in the category of loans one rung above subprime, so-called alternative-A mortgages, quadrupled to 12 percent in April from a year earlier. Delinquencies among prime loans, which account for most of the $12 trillion market, doubled to 2.7 percent in that time.

Defaults are likely to accelerate because many homeowners’ monthly payments are rising rapidly.

“Subprime was the tip of the iceberg,” said Thomas H. Atteberry, president of First Pacific Advisors, a investment firm

that trades mortgage securities.

Tags: economy, consumers, housing, i-debt, i-mortgage, financial markets, i-risks, i-increase

South Stream Russia-Europe Pipeline to Cost $20B

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:46:21 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.rigzone.com

Russia's Energy Ministry has announced a preliminary cost assessment of the South Stream pipeline project, a major gas export route to Europe, at $20 billion,

The pipeline, which according to plan should carry 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to Europe starting in 2013, will be built jointly by Russia's gas export monopoly OAO Gazprom and Italy's Eni SpA.

The initial assessment of the project cost, reported by Eni at the beginning of 2008, was about $10 billion.

The pipeline is to extend under the Black Sea, from Russia's southern port of Novorossiysk to Bulgaria, and then onwards to Austria and Italy.

It is meant to become a gas transportation route bypassing Turkey and Ukraine, which pose potential transit risks for Gazprom.

Analysts regard the cost increase as negative for Gazprom. Construction of the pipeline would mean a 3% increase in Gazprom's capital expenditure from 2010 to 2013, which would lower the company's fair value by about 1.5%,

Tags: energy, oil, pipelines, i-cost, i-increase, i-record

Future threats to the Amazon rainforest

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:36:12 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: news.mongabay.com

The reasons for land-clearing in the Amazon are compelling: cheap land and booming demand for commodities driven by a surging China and growing interest in biofuels. These factors have helped Brazil become an agricultural superpower — the world's largest exporter of beef, cotton, coffee, orange juice, soybeans, and sugar, among other products — in less than a generation. Amazon landowners have seen their land values double every 4-5 years in areas that just a decade ago were pristine rainforests. The market is driving deforestation and will continue to drive deforestation into the future, although two new developments could accelerate the process: oil palm and next-generation biofuels based on cellulosic ethanol technology.

Giant clearings created by cattle pasture and soy farms suck moisture from surrounding forest fragments, while winds blow down trees, thinning the canopy

As vegetation goes up in smoke, the forest's own rain-generating capacity is reduced

Tags: environment, forests, i-risks, i-increase, i-forecast

The world cannot grow its way out of this slowdown

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 13:45:27 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.ft.com

financial market regulation is never going to be stringent enough in booms. That is why it is important to be tougher in busts, so that investors and company executives have cause to pay serious attention to risks.

today’s mess was many years in the making and there is no easy, painless exit strategy. But the need to introduce more banking discipline is yet another reason why the policymakers must refrain from excessively expansionary macroeconomic policy at this juncture and accept the slowdown that must inevitably come at the end of such an incredible boom.

this means significantly raising interest rates to combat inflation. For Treasuries, this means maintaining fiscal discipline rather than giving in to the temptation of tax rebates and fuel subsidies.

Tags: economy, currencies. i-interest rates, i-recession, i-policy, i-increase

A World to Win

Tue, 29 Jul 2008 12:35:44 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.alternet.org

Until now, the doom and gloomsters were mostly to be found in the margins, in financial blogs or in the campaigns of Ron Paul, Ralph Nader or the Greens. The mainstream media has been looking the other way and mostly downplaying the unfolding disaster.

People in the know like George Soros are saying this is the worst financial crisis since the depression. Others fear another depression. This pessimism has reached Newsweek, a guardian of conventional wisdom, which now says "It's Worse Than You Think, writing "this downturn is likely to last longer than the eight-month-long recession of 2001.

a housing and credit crisis, and rising energy and food prices -- have strengthened rather than let up in recent months. To aggravate matters, the twin crises that dominate the financial news -- a credit crunch and the global commodity boom -- are blunting the stimulus efforts."

Tags: economy, i-despression, i-risks, i-consequences, i-opportunities

Mortgaged to the World

Tue, 29 Jul 2008 12:15:40 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

the Treasury will be allowed to advance money to Fannie and Freddie (and even to buy their stocks) in unlimited quantities to keep them afloat — in any fashion Mr. Paulson sees fit. Yet the Constitution requires that “no money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in consequence of appropriations made by law.” Even in wartime, budgets for the military specify how much is to be spent for what purposes.

as an alternative to increasing the national debt, Mr. Paulson wants to let the two mortgage lenders become preferred customers of the Fed’s discount window, with the authority to pawn their own securities for cash. But only Congress has the constitutional power to borrow on the credit of the United States.

It isn’t a good idea to authorize the Treasury secretary to spend unlimited amounts of taxpayer money,

Even worse is the notion that the Fed’s portfolio of assets — assets that back our currency — should be polluted by the inferior stuff of collateralized mortgage obligations.

Tags: economy, financial markets, i-policy, i-risks

Air Pollution Is Causing Widespread And Serious Impacts To Ecosystems

Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:30:28 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.terradaily.com

If you are living in the eastern United States, the environment around you is being harmed by air pollution. From Adirondack forests and Shenandoah streams to Appalachian wetlands and the Chesapeake Bay, a new report by the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies and The Nature Conservancy has found that air pollution is degrading every major ecosystem type in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic United States.

"Deposited pollutants have tangible human impacts. Mercury contamination results in fish that are unsafe to eat. Acidification kills fish and strips nutrients from soils. Excess nitrogen pollutes estuaries, to the detriment of coastal fisheries. And ground-level ozone reduces plant growth, a threat to forestry and agriculture."

The authors urge U.S. policymakers to establish air quality standards that are based on critical loads. This is defined as the maximum level of deposited pollution that ecosystems can tolerate before harmful effects occur.

Tags: environment, air, i-pollution, i-risks, i-consequences, i-degradation

Rising Energy, Food Prices Major Threats To Wetlands As Farmers Eye New Areas For Crops

Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:13:15 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.terradaily.com

Critical food shortages and growing demand for bio-fuels and hydro-electricity due to high fossil fuel prices rank among the greatest threats today to the preservation of precious wetlands worldwide as farmers and developers look for new areas for agriculture, energy crop plantations and hydro dams.

However, resisting pressures to convert wetlands is vital to avoid destroying ecosystems that provide a suite of services essential to humanity, including safe, steady local water supplies, preserving biodiversity and the large-scale capture and storage of climate warming greenhouse gases, according 700 leading world experts concluding a week-long meeting in Cuiaba, Brazil.

The statement stresses the rising value of wetlands in an increasingly urbanized world, especially such services as water storage and purification, and recreation.

Wetlands are under assault, however, due to agriculture, grazing, aquaculture, dams, waste disposal, invasive species

Tags: environment, water, i-extinction, i-degradation, i-risks, i-increase

UK scientists hit out at new coal station plans

Sun, 27 Jul 2008 15:16:25 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.guardian.co.uk

In a letter to The Observer, some of Britain's leading scientists claim that government plans to build new coal-fired power stations - without technology to cut emissions - will accelerate global warming.

unless Britain acts with urgency, it risks losing a world lead in carbon capture technology to other nations, including Canada, Germany and the US.

The furore over carbon capture reveals how coal power has become a key new target of UK environmentalists. Next Sunday, thousands will descend on Kingsnorth coal plant in Kent and try to shut it down.

Tags: energy, coal, i-policy, i-sequestration

Contaminated US site faces catastrophic nuclear leak

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 13:03:52 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie
clipper's remarks: Conditions at Hanford were deemed to be dangerous nearly 10 years ago!

Clip Source: environment.newscientist.com

ONE of "the most contaminated places on Earth" will only get dirtier if the US government doesn't get its act together - clean-up plans are already 19 years behind schedule and not due for completion until 2050.

More than 210 million litres of radioactive and chemical waste are stored in 177 underground tanks at Hanford in Washington State. Most are over 50 years old. Already 67 of the tanks have failed, leaking almost 4 million litres of waste into the ground.

There are now "serious questions about the tanks' long-term viability," says a Government Accountability Office report, which strongly criticises the US Department of Energy for delaying an $8 billion programme to empty the tanks and treat the waste.

The DoE's plan, however, is "faith-based", says Robert Alvarez, an authority on Hanford at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington DC. "The risk of catastrophic tank failure will sharply increase as each year goes by,"

Tags: energy, nuclear, i-costs, i-risks, i-increase

Economy: Britain teeters on brink of recession as companies cut back

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 15:52:17 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.guardian.co.uk

Howard Archer at Global Insight said: "The bad news on the UK economy is coming thick and fast, and the downturn appears to be deepening appreciably."

Alan Nolan, a director at KPMG, said: "This really is a sobering set of figures proving the credit crunch has finally taken its toll and is now severely weakening the UK jobs market."

Germany also reported "alarming" figures yesterday. Industrial output fell 2.4% in May - worse than expected. The drop, the worst monthly fall for more than a decade, on top of a 0.2% fall in April, added to fears that Europe's biggest economy, which grew by 1.5% in the first quarter, may have contracted in the second.

France and Italy are expected to report similar falls in industrial production this week, while Denmark is technically in recession and Spain and Ireland are suffering steep rises in unemployment.

the number of people placed in permanent jobs fell again in June, while vacancies for full-time staff dropped for the first time in five years.

Tags: economy, i-recession, i-risks, i-increase

Status and Curiosity - On the Origins of Oil Addiction

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 15:08:12 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.theoildrum.com

Over the 16 year study, all age groups tested did acquire some/many of the things they originally desired. But in each case, their desires increased more than their acquisitions. This phenomenon is termed the "Hedonic Treadmill".

Modern brain research indicates that we get a higher buzz by pursuing the type of 'status' symbols (in this study, cars) that society attaches value to. In my opinion, this behavior is at the heart of the Peak Oil problem, and gives me less confidence that we are just going to 'tighten our belts' when the energy situation gets a little tougher and more expensive.

If the rush is tied to something that society rewards we call it ambition, if its attached to something a little scary, then we label the individual a ‘risktaker’ and if its tied to something illegal – then they are an ‘addict’ or substance abuser.

The rich wanted 'more' because they were habituated to getting more - it's how they kept score.

few will believe until events force them too.

Tags: energy, oil, i-addiction, i-demand, i-risks