Clipmarks | JICWyllie's 'i-decrease' clips

Job prospects are weakest level for nine years

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 14:46:46 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

A new survey of more than 55,000 businesses claims that companies' intentions to hire during the final quarter of this year are the weakest since the beginning of 1999.

The findings, from a poll conducted by Manpower, the recruitment company, will alarm economists and trigger fresh fears of widespread redundancies in the run up to Christmas.

Official figures last month showed that the number of people out of work and claiming benefits rose in July by the largest amount since 1992.

Manpower said that employees in the hotel and retail, construction and finance and business services sectors were most exposed to the tougher economic climate.

The Nationwide Building Society yesterday conceded that it was likely to cut jobs at the Derbyshire and Cheshire Building Societies

Manpower claimed that employers in 25 of 33 countries were slowing down their recruitment.

Tags: economy, consumers, i-employment, i-income, i-decrease, i-record

Pound and euro slide amid more housing gloom

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:09:41 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: business.timesonline.co.uk

"Our estimate is for 25 per cent to 35 per cent house-price falls from their height...resulting in up to 1.3 million households, or 18 per cent of mortgages by value, in negative equity under our recession scenario," said Bruno Paulson, senior analyst at Sanford Bernstein, the research house.

Mr Paulson said that house price falls would be "far worse" than in the last economic downturn in the 1990s and could have a huge negative knock-on effect for the UK's mortgage lenders.

Morgan Stanley estimated in April that house price falls of 15 per cent over the subsequent 24 months would put 1.2 million people into the red with their property values.

But if price falls of 25 per cent are sustained, that would put 2 million into negative equity, analysts at the investment bank said

Savills said today that its forecast that house prices will fall by 25 per cent over this year and next was looking like an increasingly safe bet.

Tags: economy, consumers, housing, i-prices, i-decrease, i-record

Why cheaper oil signals trouble

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:24:44 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie
clipper's remarks: Deflation will win over inflation.

But the "good news" will go on until just after the USA election. Then reality will begin to intrude its ugly head, again.

Clip Source: money.cnn.com

Food and energy prices are coming down in part because of a global growth slowdown that could also cool the red hot U.S. export sector - the major bright spot in an economy still struggling with a massive housing bust.

If prices keep sliding, year-over-year inflation numbers - after hitting a 17-year high last month - could soon look much healthier, reducing fears that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates to stamp out rising inflation expectations.

If the growth party is over around the world, the U.S. export boom will quickly fizzle.

A pullback by some of its overseas customers offers the latest bit of unhappy news for the U.S. economy, which this year has continued to grow - if only tepidly - in large measure thanks to slowing imports and rising exports.

The halo effect from exports could already be wearing off.

second-quarter GDP data showed U.S. corporate profits from foreign sources dropped 15% from first-quarter levels, due to softer worldwide economic conditions.

Tags: economy, commodities, i-prices, i-decrease, i-consequences, i-deflation

Retail sales slump surpasses 1990s recession

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 18:36:02 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: business.timesonline.co.uk

High street sales plunged to the lowest level in a quarter of century in August as wet weather and increased pressure on consumers' wallets deterred shoppers from splashing out.

Some 60 per cent of retailers said that trade fell in August compared with 13 per cent who said they had risen, according to figures from the CBI.

The resulting rounded balance of -46 per cent is down from -36 per cent in July and is the lowest figure since the CBI began its series in 1983, indicating that conditions for retailers are worse than during the last recession.

There are also signs that more jobs could be lost, with 31 per cent more retailers reporting a fall rather than a rise in employment, compared with 11 per cent in July.

Tags: economy, consumers, i-spending, i-decrease, i-record

Insight: The global spending spree has hit a brick wall

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 13:30:55 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.ft.com

The US consumer is not the only one feeling down and out. Since the start of the year, higher food and energy prices have undermined consumer confidence not only in Detroit but also in Dusseldorf, Delhi and Dalian. The upshot: a global slump in personal spending is unfolding, portending rockier times for the global economy and world financial markets.

At best, global private consumption expenditures – roughly $32,000bn in nominal dollars in 2007 – are expected to rise by 2-4 per cent this year. That compares with an 11 per cent jump in 2007, and contrasts sharply with the boom in personal spending this decade.

Global consumption surged 63 per cent between 2001 and 2007, a bonanza fuelled by easy global credit conditions and soaring equity and housing prices.

consumer spending in developing nations doubled between 2000 and 2007, from $4,500bn to $9,000bn last year

Lost on the “decouplers” is this – the mood among many consumers in the developing nations is just as foul as it is in the US.

Tags: economy, consumers, i-spending, i-decrease

Pinching pennies like your grandparents

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 12:13:40 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.msnbc.msn.com

the skyrocketing cost of everything from cereal to eggs is prompting some Americans to turn to traditional techniques for stretching a dollar or a meal.

The food inflation is clearly affecting American lifestyles. An April survey by market researchers NPD Group found that more than half of adults who described themselves as “financially challenged” were trying to use up leftovers more often and prepare more meals at home than they did a year ago.

Americans are still eating out but are choosing cheaper restaurants

more people are choosing grain-based foods, such as pizza and pasta, over meat-based meals.

Clip Source: www.msnbc.msn.com

For those people who are trying to shop and eat more like their grandparents did, the change in behavior isn’t just a matter of time management. Accustomed to years of drive-through restaurants and pasta in a box, many simply don’t know how to cook from scratch.

Tags: economy, consumers, i-spending, i-decrease, i-consequences

The oxygen crisis

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 15:53:06 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.guardian.co.uk

Compared to prehistoric times, the level of oxygen in the earth's atmosphere has declined by over a third and in polluted cities the decline may be more than 50%. This change in the makeup of the air we breathe has potentially serious implications for our health. Indeed, it could ultimately threaten the survival of human life on earth, according to Roddy Newman, who is drafting a new book, The Oxygen Crisis.

the planet's forest cover was at least twice what it is today, which means that forests are now emitting only half the amount of oxygen.

Desertification and deforestation are rapidly accelerating this long-term loss of oxygen sources.

The story at sea is much the same. Nasa reports that in the north Pacific ocean oxygen-producing phytoplankton concentrations are 30% lower today, compared to the 1980s. This is a huge drop in just three decades.

This oxygen starvation is reducing regional fish stocks and diminishing the food supplies of populations that are dependent on fishing.

Tags: environment, oxygen, i-climate change, i-decrease

Property prices are slashed but sales head for new low

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:38:29 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.independent.co.uk

Having previously tried to resist market forces, property sellers have begun aggressively to cut the asking prices for their homes, according to the online estate agency Rightmove.

householders slashed the asking price of the average British home by 2.3 per cent last month – a drop of £5,403. In London, the discounting has become even more marked, with asking prices down by 5.3 per cent last month alone, representing a reduction of £21,000 in the four weeks to 9 August

The number of new mortgage approvals, says the Bank of England, is down 70 per cent on last year.

The number of transactions this year is in danger of being the lowest since 1959. This raises serious questions as to whether any short-term incentives by the Government or the Bank of England would be effective

more than £18bn of equity tied up in buy-to-let properties will be cashed in over the next few years, as Britain's private landlords sell out of the sector in their droves.

separate survey

found

Tags: economy consumers, housing, i-prices, i-decrease, i-record

Pound plunges in longest run since 1975

Sun, 17 Aug 2008 14:23:08 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: business.timesonline.co.uk

The pound is sliding for the 11th consecutive day as speculation mounted that a recession will force the Bank of England to cut interest rates.

The pound's 11-day fall to $1.857 is the longest run of declines in at least 33 years and the currency is now down 6.5 per cent since the end of July.

The currency, poised for a 3.4 per cent decline in the week, is now at more than a two-year low.

Against the euro, the pound strengthened to 79.37p, compared with 79.28p.

At the same time, there are fresh signs that the six-year commodities boom may be over as gold plunged below $800 an ounce, silver dropped as much as 12 per cent and oil, corn and copper slumped.

Analysts said that investors were moving away from commodities, believing that the Federal Reserve was resolved to fight inflation in the US by raising interest rates, which would push up the dollar.

Tags: economy, currencies, i-exchange rates, i-decrease, i-record

Things will get worse: you can bet the house on it

Sun, 17 Aug 2008 14:14:14 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.guardian.co.uk

Already, Nationwide calculates that the average home is worth £15,000 less than it was a year ago, and has slipped back to its value in August 2006. Now, analysts are scrambling over each other to increase their predictions of how far prices could fall from their peak. Many say 20 per cent; some up to 35 per cent, or even more.

George Buckley, of Deutsche Bank, points out that house prices in the United States have been falling since 2006, with only tentative signs that the downturn is coming to an end - and the boom in the UK was much bigger.

As the market slides, she predicts that many more buyers will instead opt to buy a smaller property, or share with others. 'Expectations of falling house prices will convince many to defer their property purchase, or sell their property. As more people choose to share with friends, family or strangers, a key source of demand for property at the lower end of the market will be hit, intensifying the downward pressure on prices.'

Tags: economy, consumers, housing, i-prices, i-decrease, i-accelleration, i-record

Booming China Suddenly Worries That a Slowdown Is Taking Hold

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:57:40 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie
clipper's remarks: If you think the US is overbuilt, wait until China's new urban property market begins to plunge in value ... just like Japan, but probably worse because there is even more corruption.

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

Many Chinese have been expecting a post-Olympics economic slowdown, but it has already started and the Games have not even begun.

Chinese factories reported a plunge in new orders last month. Exports are barely growing. The real estate market is weakening, with apartment prices sinking in southeastern China, the region hardest hit by economic troubles.

China’s slowing growth is one reason that gasoline prices have fallen in the United States, for example. Similarly, world prices for metals like copper, tin, zinc and aluminum have tumbled in the last several weeks, as voracious Chinese factories have closed, or cut back their consumption.

Economists expect growth to slip from its recent pace of 11 percent or more annually to as low as 9 or 9.5 percent over the coming year.

9 percent growth will make it much harder to supply jobs to the millions of Chinese moving to cities from rural areas in search of work.

Tags: economy, business, growth, i-decrease

Oil falls to three-month low

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:47:42 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.guardian.co.uk

Oil slid to $118 a barrel as investors predicted that demand from the US and Europe was waning, at a time when some oil-producing countries have increased supply.

supply from Opec, the group of major oil-producing nations, rose for a third consecutive month in July driven by increased output from the world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia. Opec's members produce two in every five barrels of oil.

Angus McPhail from investment firm Alliance Trust said prices could fall to about £100 a barrel - still high by the standards set in recent years - if economic data remains weak.

Changes in the oil prices often takes six to eight weeks to hit the petrol pump.

Tags: energy, oil, i-supply, i-increase. i-price, i-decrease

Three Strikes Against Consumers

Sun, 03 Aug 2008 13:41:32 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

the most unusual feature of our current problems: the primary impact of all of them has been on consumers, not on businesses. Even the credit crisis centers on the home mortgage problem

This combination of events explains why it is so hard to find solutions that can bring the economy back into the light. Past recessions and economic crises typically developed in the business sector, where companies have a habit during good times of running to excess in inventory accumulation or in expanding employment and capacity. This time, businesses generally have been well financed and conservative in their decision-making. Even the stock market, although at high levels in 2007, has not been in the kind of speculative fever that has led to past crashes.

As a result of these exceptional conditions, we have no guidelines to follow. We are in uncharted territory.

Tags: economy, consumers, i-debt, i-spending, i-decrease

Shipping Costs Start to Crimp Globalization

Sun, 03 Aug 2008 13:23:33 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.nytimes.com

Cheap oil, the lubricant of quick, inexpensive transportation links across the world, may not return anytime soon, upsetting the logic of diffuse global supply chains that treat geography as a footnote in the pursuit of lower wages.

Rising concern about global warming, the reaction against lost jobs in rich countries, worries about food safety and security, and the collapse of world trade talks in Geneva last week also signal that political and environmental concerns may make the calculus of globalization far more complex.

companies looking to keep prices low will have to move some production closer to consumers. Globe-spanning supply chains

make less sense today than they did a few years ago.

Decisions like those suggest that what some economists call a neighborhood effect — putting factories closer to components suppliers and to consumers, to reduce transportation costs — could grow in importance if oil remains expensive.

Tags: economy, trade, i-globalisation, i-decrease, transport, i-prices, i-increase

Halifax: British house prices slump by 10%

Sun, 03 Aug 2008 09:22:07 GMT

clipped by: JICWyllie

Clip Source: www.independent.co.uk

The housing market is falling at more than 10 per cent year on year, the most dramatic collapse in the sector's recorded history, the Halifax mortgage bank will reveal this week.

Even in the 1990s, Britain did not face double-digit annual falls in house values. The figures will show the cost of the average UK purchase fell below £180,000 in July, returning prices to mid-2006 levels. That compares with a peak of £199,600 last August.

In June, Halifax forecast house prices would fall by up to 9 per cent this year but its figures will show the annual rate already exceeds that. However, when the bank's parent, HBOS, last week revealed profits hit by provisions against falling property values it admitted the consensus is for prices to fall 15 to 20 per cent during 2008 and 2009.

Tags: economy, consumers, housing, i-decrease, i-record